US Dollar Index: Rally pause as data focus shifts – OCBC

OCBC’s FX Strategist Christopher Wong notes that the Dollar Index (DXY) has eased alongside lower US Treasury yields, with no tier-1 US data due today. Focus turns to upcoming FOMC minutes and US flash PMIs to gauge inflation persistence and activity momentum. Wong highlights key DXY support around 98.30–98.50 and resistance near 99.40 and 100.50–100.60.

Dollar pauses after recent run-up

"USD eased overnight, alongside the pullback in UST yields. There is no tier-1 data today, focus this week on FOMC minutes and US flash PMIs."

"The minutes may provide some color on officials’ concern over inflation persistence while the PMIs will test whether US activity momentum is holding up or starting to soften under tighter financial conditions."

"A softer PMI print or less hawkish read from the minutes would be needed to take some heat out of the recent move."

"DXY’s run-up failed at 99.30. Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI eased from near overbought conditions."

"Support at 98.30/50 levels (21, 100, 200 DMAs), 98.10 (50% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high) and 97.50/60 levels (double bottom, 61.8% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high). Resistance at 99.40 (23.6% fibo), 100.50/60 levels (2026 high)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)