How Bitcoin Looks Heading Into a High-Stakes US Midterm Election Week

Bitcoin is heading into America’s midterm elections with a problem. Wall Street is pulling money out, traders are betting on further losses, and the world’s largest crypto exchange is recovering from a record $6.3 billion hack.

The November 3 vote could now add another layer of uncertainty to an already nervous market.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $77,000 on October 30 before recovering above $78,000 on Monday. Ethereum also bounced from $2,200 to around $2,287. Yet the recovery has done little to resolve the weakness beneath the surface.

Weekly ETF flows flipped back under pressure.BTC reversed from a $301.2M inflow to a $202.4M outflow, while ETH outflows widened from $220.7M to $431.4M.➡️ Monitor momentum shifts with Bitunix Ultra Indicator Alerts: https://t.co/YiCsXexHfF pic.twitter.com/LIeP6ynj0o

— Bitunix (@BitunixOfficial) November 2, 2026

Wall Street Is Sending a Warning

US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.2 million on October 30, wiping out the inflows recorded during the previous four trading sessions.

The week ended with roughly $202 million in net withdrawals. Ethereum funds suffered an even more consistent selloff, losing $431.4 million over five consecutive trading days.

The latest figures reinforce concerns that institutional buying has struggled to keep Bitcoin above $80,000.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s estimated on-chain average cost basis had climbed to $74,800. This leaves a relatively narrow cushion between recent prices and the average purchase price tracked in that analysis.

Large traders are also preparing for volatility. Bitunix Analysts identified a $201 million leveraged Bitcoin short on Hyperliquid as of October 29, reflecting a substantial bearish bet before election week.

The Election Could Change Crypto’s Next Move

The midterms will determine control of Congress and could influence the future of the CLARITY Act, Washington’s proposed framework for regulating cryptocurrencies.

The bill failed to advance in the Senate in September. A change in congressional control could alter its path, although the legislation already faces disagreements extending beyond party lines.

Crypto investors are also watching the aftermath of Binance’s hack. Customers withdrew a net $3.64 billion after the attack, although the exchange says withdrawals are stabilizing and approximately 95% of stolen assets have been replaced using company resources.

Well, that wasn't the Uptober we were hoping for!Only 2 of the top 20 cryptocurrencies ended October in the green: $XMR (+9.99%) and $LEO (+4.07%).$RAIN took the biggest hit, falling 48.47%, followed by $XLM (25.12%).$BTC dropped 7.30%, while $ETH fell 16.04%. pic.twitter.com/UMc5O6L2QF

— BeInCrypto (@beincrypto) November 1, 2026

Two Bitcoin Prices Matter Now

The immediate test is whether Bitcoin can reclaim $80,000 and attract fresh ETF inflows.

A return below $77,000 could instead bring attention back to the $74,800 cost-basis region identified by Bitunix.

With election results approaching and confidence still fragile, Bitcoin enters the week facing a difficult question: can political clarity bring buyers back when institutional money is already leaving?