BTC retail and institutional buyers faceoff with old whale sellers

BTC selling pressure remains strong, keeping prices from reaching a true breakout. On-chain data shows the selling pressure may be coming from older cohorts of whales. 

On the demand side, BTC shows robust weekly buying, far surpassing the weekly BTC production. Institutional inflows remain strong, with Strategy adding 24,869 BTC in the past week.  

Based on fundraising data, Strategy may add over 15K BTC, as estimated by Alphractal analysts. Even with those levels of institutional demand, BTC traded around $77.113.91, with a generally fearful sentiment. 

ETFs absorb BTC, but are used for exit liquidity

ETFs are showing strong weeks of buying, although sometimes, holders also sell in panic. However, the strong ETF demand may be used by older whales as a way to liquidate their holdings. 

According to Whale Alert, most wallets that have held for over 7 years used OTC deals rather than exchange sales. According to the Hodl Waves chart, the most active selling cohort included wallets aged 3-5 years, which now hold under 10% of all BTC in circulation, down from 13% at the end of 2025.

The growing inflows from whale wallets mean the 50,000 BTC per month from institutions may come from OTC deals, not swaying the spot market. 

The current trading setup for BTC does not show signs of capitulation; instead, it points to strategic selling and distribution within a tight price range. 

Alphractal noted retail demand tended net positive, along with institutional purchases. However, whale wallets have been in distribution mode. There are no signs of panic-selling either from retail or whales. 

Overall, wallets older than five years sold around 38,400 BTC in the year to date. The amount sold is equivalent to three months of ETF demand. 

When will BTC reverse its course? 

The activity of ETF and older whales is showing a redistribution of BTC ownership. The BTC price may reverse course if older whale selling becomes exhausted. 

BTC is closely watched for a slowdown in selling. As of May 2026, the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric shows that most movements from old wallets have been completed, and transactions are down to a lower baseline. 

The current selling pressure may mean BTC will continue to cycle between $78K and $82K, according to Alphractal. Older whale wallets use the short-term rallies to realize a higher price, often with an extremely low cost basis. 

In the meantime, BTC shows a pattern of strategic whale trading, with accumulation during sideways trading and distribution during a local market peak. Smart money usually sells into strength, taking profits just as retail sentiment turns positive. 

Based on recent Cryptoquant analysis, whales have prepared for more selling, as newer buyers prefer centralized exchanges. On May 18, 8,063 BTC went into exchanges, preparing for the next period of short-term rallies and distribution. 

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