The New Zealand Dollar holds near its lows while business confidence jumps
- NZD/USD holds near its November 2025 low as business confidence jumps.
- A net 43% of New Zealand firms expect better conditions, up from 8%.
- RBNZ Governor Breman speaks Thursday, ahead of the October 28 decision.
New Zealand's firms are more upbeat and raising fewer prices, and the second half of that matters more for the Kiwi. NZD/USD trades just above 0.5600 after a fresh low beneath it, back near its November 2025 low.
A net 43% of firms expect business conditions to improve, up from 8%, in the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) survey released at 21:00 GMT on Monday. The same survey found their own trading flat to slightly weaker over the quarter.
Fewer firms raising prices is what a rate hike is for
The share of firms reporting higher costs fell to a net 47% from 54%, and fewer firms raised prices, which NZIER said lowers the risk of dearer fuel spreading into broader inflation. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.75% in September, its second hike since July. Traders have bet on a third on October 28.
Those bets are the main thing holding up the Kiwi against a firm US Dollar, and softer pricing in the survey weakens them. The RBNZ may still hike on October 28, although its own September rate track had October down as a pause.
RBNZ Governor Breman speaks after a month of bets on a hike she wouldn't promise
RBNZ Governor Breman speaks on Thursday, the only New Zealand event scheduled through Friday. New Zealand's third-quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) follows on October 21, a week before the decision, and voters go to the polls on November 7.
The US calendar fills the gap, with private-sector jobs data on Tuesday at 12:15 GMT, Fed minutes at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday and jobless claims at 12:30 GMT on Thursday, forecast at 200K. Monday's survey was New Zealand's biggest release of the week, and it left NZD/USD near its low.
Levels around the Kiwi's new low
Resistance: Each of the last five sessions has peaked below the one before, and Monday's high came in just above 0.5600. No daily close since September 28 has come in above 0.5650.
Support: Monday's low, just under 0.5600, is back at the November 2025 low. 0.5550 is next, then 0.5500.
Bias: The setup tilts lower below 0.5650 on a closing basis, targeting 0.5550 first and 0.5500 after that. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) has stayed under 20 since September 10 and reads near 9, so a bounce toward 0.5650 would still fit the short. A daily close above 0.5700 ends it.
NZD/USD daily chart
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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