Canadian Dollar firms against weaker US Dollar despite pressure from falling Oil prices

• USD/CAD snaps a four-day winning streak as easing US-Iran tensions weigh on the US Dollar.
• Falling Oil prices pressure the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar, limiting downside in the pair.
• Traders await US PCE inflation data while monitoring headlines surrounding a possible US-Iran agreement.

USD/CAD trades on the back foot on Monday, snapping a four-day winning streak as markets monitor evolving developments surrounding ongoing US-Iran negotiations. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3803 after easing from an intraday high near 1.3820.

The US Dollar (USD) came under selling pressure after reports suggested the United States (US) and Iran were making progress toward a potential agreement that could eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The optimism dragged crude Oil prices sharply lower, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling to its lowest level in almost three weeks.

Falling crude prices eased fears of an Energy-driven inflation shock while also limiting downside pressure in USD/CAD, as weaker Oil prices tend to weigh on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD), given Canada is one of the world’s largest crude exporters.

Meanwhile, lingering uncertainty surrounding the negotiations continues to limit downside pressure on the US Dollar, as major disagreements reportedly remain over Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is consolidating losses near the 99.00 mark.

At the same time, investors remain focused on the monetary policy outlook. Despite the recent pullback in Oil prices, they remain well above pre-war levels, keeping Energy-driven inflation concerns in focus and reinforcing expectations that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed), may be forced to raise interest rates or maintain a higher-for-longer policy stance.

Hawkish Fed expectations continue to offer underlying support to the US Dollar, with investors now turning their attention to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data due on Thursday for further clues on the interest rate outlook. Traders also continue to assess whether ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran could eventually lead to a final agreement.