Bitcoin Posts Longest Weekly Losing Run Since 2024, Rebounds Cautiously as Fed Outlook Shifts

Bitcoin has recorded its fourth straight week of declines, marking the longest sustained downturn since June 2024, though prices have begun to stabilize in recent sessions.

The cryptocurrency is now on track for its worst quarterly performance since 2018, down 24.43% so far this quarter.

“I expect a rough ride into Christmas,” said Sean Dawson, head of research at options analytics platform Derive.

Despite the weak price action, underlying demand may be strengthening. On-chain data shows the aggregate spot bid-ask delta at 10% depth has surged to the second-highest level this year, signaling strong dip-buying activity and absorption of sell-side pressure. A similar spike in this metric during the March-April downtrend earlier this year preceded a 64% rally.

Bitcoin currently trades around $87,400, up roughly 6% from its November 21 low of $82,100 and about 1.8% higher over the past 24 hours.

The tentative rebound comes amid a sharp shift in expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Markets now price in nearly a 70% chance of a December rate cut, up from just 40% last week.

Still, Dawson remains cautious. “Pessimism has peaked, but I'd be careful of walking into a bull trap,” he warned, pointing to persistent market headwinds. Many digital asset treasuries are trading below net asset value, limiting their ability to accumulate holdings, while spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continue to see outflows.

He also noted that despite rising rate-cut expectations, persistent inflation concerns may slow the Fed’s shift to quantitative easing, keeping traders on edge.

Looking ahead, Dawson expects Bitcoin could recover to $100,000 by the first quarter of 2026 but remains bearish through year-end. He highlights a noticeable skew in the options market, with traders loading up on put options—especially for December expiry—in the $80,000 to $85,000 range.

“I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin briefly slipped into the mid-to-high $70,000 range before recovering to around $90,000 by year-end, barring a hawkish shift from the Fed,” he said.

While market sentiment remains in “extreme fear” territory, it has improved slightly following the recent bounce. All eyes are now on the Fed, which will end its quantitative tightening program on December 1 and announce its next rate decision on December 10—moves that could set the tone for Bitcoin and broader markets in the weeks ahead.