EUR/USD slips near 1.1500 despite cautious ECB tone
- EUR/USD may appreciate amid a cautious tone surrounding the ECB policy stance.
- ECB Lagarde said the central bank will adjust rates if needed to maintain its 2% target.
- The US Dollar softens as revived expectations of a December Fed rate cut pressure the currency.
EUR/USD extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 1.1510 during the Asian hours on Monday. However, the downside of the pair could be limited as the Euro (EUR) may gain ground due to the cautious sentiment surrounding the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook.
The ECB is widely expected to keep rates unchanged through the end of 2026, with inflation hovering near its 2% target, stable economic growth, and unemployment at record lows. The preliminary data showed Eurozone private-sector activity grew robustly in November, slightly below October’s more than two-year high and broadly in line with expectations, supporting the cautious view of the ECB outlook.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Friday that the central bank will remain vigilant to inflation risks and will adjust interest rates, if needed, to keep inflation at 2% target. ECB Governing Council (GC) member and Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, Gabriel Makhlouf, said on Thursday that the current monetary policy is appropriate and any adjustment is unlikely, unless there is a material change.
Additionally, the EUR/USD pair may appreciate as the US Dollar (USD) weakens, as renewed expectations of a Fed rate cut in December weigh on sentiment. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets are now pricing in a 69% chance that the Fed will cut its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, up from 44% probability that markets priced a week ago.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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