Anthropic's IPO Could Value It at 30 Times Revenue. Here's Why I'm Still Interested Anyway.

I'll be honest, I'm a bit of a value investor at heart. So, when I see rumors that AI start-up Anthropic is potentially targeting a $2 trillion IPO valuation, I get a little bit squeamish. That would value the developer of the Claude AI chatbot at 30 times revenue. That's quite pricy for someone who views a stock trading at 30 times earnings as expensive.

Despite that sky-high valuation, I'm still interested in investing in Anthropic when it goes public. While I probably won't buy IPO shares, I'd pounce if it follows the path of most big IPOs and subsequently falls after an IPO pop.

Image source: Getty Images.

The staggering valuation

Anthropic hasn't priced its IPO yet. However, I've seen a couple of reports suggesting it's targeting a $2 trillion valuation, which would put it ahead of the $1.8 trillion valuation at which SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) priced its IPO this past June.

The AI start-up reported last month that its annualized revenue run rate reached $65 billion at the end of July. That would value it at 30 times revenue. That's actually not bad when you consider that SpaceX went public at 100 times sales. SpaceX has gotten cheaper since then, as it currently trades at over 42 times revenue, even though it was recently trading above its IPO price due to blistering revenue growth (92% year-over-year in the second quarter). It's also less than some other notable public traded tech companies (Palantir trades at over 50 times sales, while Cloudflare fetches more than 40 times revenue).

However, the problem with high-valued IPOs is that most don't usually live up to the initial hype. According to data from FactSet, only nine of the 36 companies with market caps over $15 billion to go public on major U.S. exchanges have outperformed the S&P 500 since their IPO. Factors such as not growing as quickly as expected and the expiration of post-IPO lockups have contributed to their lackluster performance.

Why I'm still interested in Anthropic

Despite its likely lofty IPO valuation, I'm very intrigued by Anthropic. It's growing remarkably fast. Its annual revenue run rate was only about $9 billion at the end of 2025. Its $65 billion annual revenue run rate at the end of July was a staggering ninefold increase from a year ago. That blistering growth enabled Anthropic to report an operating profit in the second quarter, the first in its history. For comparison, SpaceX posted a $541 million net loss in the second quarter.

Anthropic is still in the early stages of its growth. The company projects 2028 revenue of $190 billion to $200 billion, roughly triple July's annualized level. That would put its $2 trillion rumored valuation at "only" 10 times 2028 revenue. Meanwhile, Anthropic believes its potential revenue exceeds $30 trillion, surpassing the $26.5 trillion estimate SpaceX puts on xAI's market opportunity. However, those are pie-in-the-sky numbers, as neither company will capture 100% of the AI opportunity. Further, the combined total revenue of all publicly traded tech companies was less than $2.5 trillion last year.

Still, I've seen the immense potential of Anthropic's Claude firsthand. While I'm concerned about the impact AI will have on my profession as a writer, I've started embracing it to help improve my workflow. I don't say this lightly, but Claude has been a game changer for me personally and professionally. I've used it to develop better headlines (it helped me craft the one for this article), analyze data to improve content production, and devise my personalized retirement strategy. While it has its flaws, it has become an indispensable tool for me.

How I plan to play the Anthropic IPO

I learned a costly lesson with SpaceX. I had a vague plan to buy shares after its IPO on a pullback, which came and went because I never set a target price. I don't plan on repeating that mistake with Anthropic. I will develop an action plan before it goes public with a target buy price based on the most up-to-date information. On the one hand, I don't want to get caught up in the IPO hype, especially considering my personal affection for Claude. However, I also don't want to miss a chance to buy shares at a reasonable valuation. That's why I plan to watch closely as Anthropic's IPO plays out.

Matt DiLallo has positions in Cloudflare and FactSet Research Systems. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Cloudflare, FactSet Research Systems, and Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.