Ranking the "Magnificent Seven" From Most to Least Attractive, Based on Future Cash Flow

Source Motley_fool

Key Points

  • The Magnificent Seven have put Wall Street's major stock indexes on their proverbial backs and lifted them to new heights.

  • Given that all seven members of the Magnificent Seven reinvest their cash flow into high-growth initiatives, cash flow makes for the ideal valuation metric.

  • Two of Wall Street's most influential businesses, one of which is a dual-industry leader, stand out for all the right reasons.

  • 10 stocks we like better than Meta Platforms ›

For the better part of the last four years, artificial intelligence (AI) has been the wind in Wall Street's sails. But make no mistake about it, the "Magnificent Seven" have put the stock market's major indexes on their proverbial backs and lifted them to new heights.

The Magnificent Seven consist of:

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  • Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA)
  • Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)
  • Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL)(NASDAQ: GOOG)
  • Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)
  • Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN)
  • Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META)
  • Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).

Although all seven companies are industry leaders with clear competitive advantages, their outlooks can differ greatly. Arguably, the best differentiating factor among the Magnificent Seven is their cash flow.

A magnifying glass laid atop a financial newspaper, which is enlarging a subhead that reads, Market data.

Image source: Getty Images.

Ranking the Magnificent Seven by the forward-year cash flow

The traditional price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is the usual go-to when valuing a public company or the broader market. However, the P/E ratio often isn't the best valuation measure when dealing with growth stocks.

Since all seven members of the Magnificent Seven aggressively reinvest their cash flow into high-growth initiatives, including AI, it makes for the ideal valuation metric.

Based on Wall Street's consensus cash-flow-per-share estimates for the forward year, here's how the Magnificent Seven rank from most (i.e., cheapest) to least attractive:

  1. Meta Platforms: 9 times estimated forward-year cash flow
  2. Amazon: 11.2
  3. Microsoft: 15.1
  4. Alphabet: 15.9
  5. Nvidia: 16
  6. Apple: 28.2
  7. Tesla: 76

At one end of the spectrum, iPhone maker Apple and electric-vehicle kingpin Tesla stand out for all the wrong reasons. Both are historically pricey based on future cash flow and appear to offer limited upside.

However, social media titan Meta Platforms and dual-industry leader Amazon are standouts in the opposite direction.

A stopwatch whose second hand has stopped above the phrase, Time to Buy.

Image source: Getty Images.

Meta and Amazon stand out for all the right reasons

As has been the case for quite some time, Mark Zuckerberg's company is the cheapest Magnificent Seven stock relative to its future cash flow. Although there's been some concern about Meta's aggressive spending on its data center build-out, it has the steady cash flow of its social media assets to fall back on.

Meta's family of apps attracted an average of 3.6 billion daily users in June. With no other social media platforms close to this figure, it's no surprise that Zuckerberg's company sports exceptional ad pricing power.

However, Meta is getting an early boost from AI through its advertising platform. Generative AI is allowing Meta's clients to tailor static and video messages for individual users, which can improve click-through rates and further strengthen Meta's ad pricing power.

Meanwhile, Amazon leads in two separate categories. Most investors are familiar with its dominance in online retail sales, but they might not realize how much annual sales are generated by the world's leading cloud infrastructure services platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS).

As of the June-ended quarter, AWS is pacing nearly $169 billion in annual run rate sales. This segment generates considerably higher margins than its online marketplace and is responsible for the lion's share of Amazon's operating income. Since Amazon integrated generative AI and large language model capabilities into AWS, year-over-year sales growth has reaccelerated.

As AWS grows into a larger piece of Amazon's revenue pie, the company's cash flow per share can expand at an even quicker pace.

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Sean Williams has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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