Prediction: This Will Be Nvidia's Stock Price by the End of the Year

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has traded sideways for the last six months despite strong financial results and encouraging spending projections from hyperscalers like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft.

What's keeping the stock down? Investors are worried that artificial intelligence (AI) spending is unsustainable. Additionally, the Iran conflict has pushed oil prices to a multiyear high, making interest rate cuts less likely. Investors tend to rotate away from growth stocks when borrowing costs are high.

Nevertheless, Wall Street thinks Nvidia is deeply undervalued. Among 70 analysts, the stock has a median target price of $265 per share, according to The Wall Street Journal. That implies 50% upside from the current share price of $177. But I think that estimate is a little low.

Here's my prediction: Nvidia will reach $276 per share by December 2026.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Nvidia has a durable competitive advantage in AI infrastructure

Nvidia dominates the market for data center graphics processing units (GPUs) and high-speed networking equipment, both of which are key in accelerating artificial intelligence tasks. The company has been so successful not only because it builds superior hardware but also because its CUDA software platform is the industry standard in AI application development.

Nvidia's most consequential competitive advantage lies in vertical integration. The company develops full-stack computing platforms that bring together central processing units (CPUs), GPUs, and networking solutions, letting it optimize performance at the system level rather than the component level. In turn, Nvidia systems generally have a lower total cost of ownership than AI infrastructure from other companies.

Custom silicon from competitors like Broadcom is often portrayed as a serious threat, primarily because several of Nvidia's largest customers have deployed custom AI accelerators in their data centers. But those chips are less flexible than Nvidia GPUs (meaning they can run fewer algorithms), and they are supported by a much less mature software ecosystem. That limits their addressable market.

"With significant barriers to entry created by its CUDA software stack, we see limited competitive risks and expect Nvidia to continue to dominate one of the fastest-growing workloads in cloud and enterprise," writes John Vinh at KeyBanc. He recently set Nvidia with a target price of $275 per share, implying 55% upside from its current share price of $177.

My prediction: Nvidia will increase 56% to $276 per share by December 2026

Nvidia reported strong financial results in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, which ended in January. Sales increased 73% to $68 billion, the second consecutive acceleration. Gross margin expanded 2 percentage points, and non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings climbed 82% to $1.62 per diluted share.

Additionally, Nvidia expects revenue to accelerate once again in the current quarter, and the company has strong growth prospects in the second half of the year due to the launch of its next-generation Rubin GPU. Compared to the current Blackwell architecture, the Rubin GPU will deliver 10 times more performance per watt.

Grand View Research estimates data center GPU spending will increase at 35% annually through 2033, while data center networking sales increase at 17% annually over the same period. With a dominant position in both markets, Nvidia's revenue could easily grow faster than 30% annually for several years to come, especially because the company has opportunities beyond the data center.

Nvidia typically reports third-quarter results in late November. At that point, the Wall Street consensus says trailing-12-month adjusted earnings will reach $7.48 per diluted share, representing 85% growth from the same point in the prior year. Nvidia currently trades at 37 times adjusted earnings. If the company maintains its current valuation and hits Wall Street's consensus estimate, the stock will trade at $276 per share by late 2026.

Trevor Jennewine has positions in Amazon and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.