Can Walmart's New CEO Send the Massive Retailer's Stock Soaring in 2026 (and Beyond?)

John Furner became president and CEO of Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT) on Feb. 1, 2026. He took over from Doug McMillon, who had led the company since 2014.

While McMillon was CEO, shareholders earned returns exceeding 500% between stock appreciation and dividends, outpacing the S&P 500's returns. With that success, Furner has big shoes to fill, prompting investors to ask whether Walmart stock can soar in 2026.

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What John Furner faces

It goes without saying that Furner will have to meet high expectations, but that becomes all the more true given the state of Walmart as he takes over.

This was not true for McMillon, who came in when Walmart was struggling to compete against Amazon. At the time, investors had soured on the stock, taking the P/E ratio down to 15.

McMillon turned Walmart into more of an omnichannel retailer and found a greater degree of success internationally with a pivot into e-commerce. He also offered more competitive wages to attract better talent and invested heavily in tech-oriented supply chains, applying artificial intelligence (AI) to improve efficiency.

In a sense, Furner looks like a natural choice for the job. He started as a Sam's Club executive in 2006, later becoming that segment's president and CEO. He also led Walmart U.S. before taking the CEO job, presumably giving him a stake in his predecessor's success.

Still, despite such accolades, Furner has a difficult job when it comes to stoking stock price growth, and it's not just because Walmart's market cap briefly join the $1 trillion club in early February.

Walmart traded at a 42 P/E ratio when McMillon stepped down. That earnings multiple is well above the S&P 500's average P/E ratio of 29. In terms of its peers, it's much more expensive than the struggling Target at 13 times earnings but remains cheaper than Costco, which has a 50 P/E ratio.

Indeed, the 13% net income growth in fiscal 2026 (ended Jan. 31) is impressive considering the low margins in the retail industry. Still, the high P/E ratio makes Walmart stock a target if expectations fall, leaving the stock vulnerable.

Moreover, Furner could struggle to build on the company's past growth. The approximately 5,200 Walmart and Sam's Club stores in the U.S. leave it little room to grow at home, and several high-profile moves to build stores outside of North America ended in failure in past decades.

Additionally, the company depends heavily on imports to stock its shelves. That could cause issues as tariff uncertainty could bring price hikes and by extension, lower sales.

Can Walmart stock soar with a new CEO?

Given the state of Walmart stock, CEO Furner is unlikely to help Walmart soar in 2026 or anytime in the foreseeable future.

Furner certainly has the qualifications to run Walmart and can arguably claim partial credit for the company's recent success.

Unfortunately for Furner, Walmart is a low-margin business that has already capitalized on the growth avenues investors know will work. When figuring in market saturation and its premium earnings multiple, the odds of Walmart stock beating the market in 2026 are low.

Will Healy has positions in Target. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Costco Wholesale, Target, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.