Why the 2026 SpaceX IPO Is Actually All About Starlink

Last week, I offered an hypothesis: Despite apparently confirming, late last year, that he plans to IPO SpaceX in 2026, Elon Musk might actually intend to IPO Starlink instead.

Now, I might be wrong about that; I might be right. Honestly, it doesn't make much difference.

Because whichever company technically gets taken public in 2026, it's Starlink that really matters.

Starlink is the growth driver behind SpaceX

Why do I say this? Let's consider a few numbers.

In 2024, SpaceX is reported to have generated total sales of $13.1 billion. In 2025, that number seems to have grown 15% to $15 billion, and in 2026, it's likely to grow to $23.8 billion -- 53.5% growth, according to data from the space analysts at Payload Space. (Note that because SpaceX is still privately owned, and not required to disclose its financial information publicly, all these numbers are guesses based on incomplete information. Payload Space is one analyst that's posited the $23.8 billion number, but other analysts, such as Quilty Space, are generally in the same ballpark.)

Is it realistic to expect SpaceX to more than triple its 2025 revenue growth rate this a year? Possibly, and especially if you consider where that growth is coming from: Starlink.

According to Payload, $10.4 billion of SpaceX's $15 billion in 2025 revenue came from Starlink satellite internet (both collecting subscription fees and selling hardware). That was 69% of total sales. In 2026, Payload forecasts Starlink revenue will grow 80% to $18.7 billion, with the result that Starlink will account for approximately 79% of SpaceX's total revenue in 2026.

Contrast this 80% growth in Starlink satellite revenue versus the mere 9% growth in revenue from SpaceX's rocket launch business, and what can you conclude?

That essentially all of SpaceX's revenue growth comes from Starlink.

The company's space launch business, in contrast, is growing much more modestly.

SpaceX has planned this for years

And that's OK. While things are a little behind schedule, this is basically the way SpaceX mapped things out nearly a decade ago.

Back then, The Wall Street Journal reported on internal SpaceX documents detailing the company's 10-year plan for turning itself into the most profitable company in space. These documents described how, by 2025, SpaceX planned to have grown into a company with $36 billion a year in sales, generating a 60% operating profit margin and earning $22 billion in annual profit.

Even way back then, SpaceX expected most of the $36 billion to come from Starlink -- and that's exactly how things are playing out today. As the low-margin rocket launch business becomes more commoditized, SpaceX is leaning ever more heavily -- and profitably -- upon its market-leading satellite internet business instead.

Not all Starlinks are created equal

As a side note, it's worth pointing out that actual subscriber growth at Starlink is even faster than 80%. Starlink subscribers doubled from 2.3 million at the end of 2023 to 4.6 million at the end of 2024, doubled again to 9.2 million through the end of 2025, and could easily double yet again to 18.4 million in 2026, according to Payload.

Granted, Starlink is growing faster outside the U.S. than within it, and most international customers pay lower rates for Starlink access than do U.S. customers. As a result, Starlink revenue is growing somewhat slower than Starlink subscribers.

And that's OK, too

But again, all this is to be expected. After all, as SpaceX outlined in its Starlink Progress Report 2025, Starlink now operates in 155 countries around the globe. It makes sense that growth in the other 154 countries would outpace growth in the U.S. (especially if SpaceX is charging lower prices in most of those other countries). If the cost of this is slightly lower revenue growth and profit earned in those other countries, then so be it.

SpaceX is still growing much faster than just about any other space company out there -- and Starlink is the reason why.

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