Nvidia's Earnings on Nov. 19: What History Tells Us About Nvidia Stock's Moves Following Earnings Releases
Key Points
Given Nvidia's fantastic "earnings beat" record, my bet is it will surpass Wall Street's estimates on Nov. 19.
However, an earnings beat doesn't necessarily mean the stock price will rise following the release.
Long-term investors should focus on Nvidia's quarterly results, guidance, and management's comments on the earnings call, rather than getting overly hung up on the market's reaction.
- 10 stocks we like better than Nvidia ›
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is slated to report its results for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended Oct. 26) on Wednesday, Nov. 19, after the market close.
As the dominant supplier of artificial intelligence (AI) chips and related technology, Nvidia has seen its quarterly reports become the most anticipated of every earnings season for the past few years. Beyond being the largest AI company, Nvidia is also the most valuable company on the S&P 500 index. So it is considered a bellwether, or indicator, for the entire stock market, as well as the AI space.
Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »
This upcoming release comes at a particularly interesting time. Last week, Nvidia stock declined 7.2% on news that well-known hedge fund manager Michael Burry made big bearish bets (through buying put options) on Nvidia stock and fellow popular AI stock Palantir in the third quarter.
Burry's bet against Nvidia will probably be a losing bet, in my opinion. Nvidia is performing fantastically -- and is the company most responsible for enabling the AI revolution.
As in the last quarter, Nvidia's Q3 results will not include any H20 data center AI chip sales to China. Given recent comments by CEO Jensen Huang, investors should not expect any changes on the China front.
Image source: Getty Images.
Nvidia's Q3 guidance and Wall Street's estimates
| Metric | Q3 Fiscal 2025 Result | Nvidia's Q3 Fiscal 2026 Guidance | Nvidia's Projected Growth | Wall Street's Q3 Fiscal 2026 Consensus Estimate | Wall Street's Projected Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $35.08 billion | $54 billion | 54% | $54.83 billion | 56% |
| Adjusted (non-GAAP) earnings per share (EPS) | $0.81 | $1.22* | 51% | $1.25 | 54% |
Data sources: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance. Fiscal Q3 2026 ended Oct. 26, 2025. GAAP = generally accepted accounting principles. *Calculation by the author based on the metrics for which management provided guidance.
Wall Street's estimates for fiscal Q4 guidance
Often, a company's guidance (relative to Wall Street's expectations) can affect the stock price following an earnings release at least as much as the results for the current quarter.
That said, following are the analyst consensus estimates for Nvidia's fiscal fourth quarter, which will end in late January 2026.
| Metric | Q4 Fiscal 2025 Result | Wall Street's Q4 Fiscal 2026 Consensus Estimate | Wall Street's Projected Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $39.3 billion | $61.33 billion | 56% |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.89 | $1.42 | 59% |
Data source: Nvidia's earnings report and Yahoo! Finance.
Nvidia's great "earnings beat" track record
Nvidia has an excellent track record of surpassing Wall Street's earnings estimates. I believe it will do so again on Nov. 19.
Following is data for the past 21 quarters, or just over five years. I also broke out the results of the past four quarters to show that the earnings beats have been a bit smaller recently. In my opinion, this is not a cause for concern. I believe the primary reason for this dynamic is that Nvidia's management has recently been more effective at projecting guidance, and Wall Street uses this guidance as a basis for its estimates.
| Period | Earnings* Results Relative to Wall Street's Consensus Estimate | Magnitude of Earnings Beat (Average) | Magnitude of Earnings Beat (Range) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 21 reported quarters | 19/21 beats = 90.5% |
10%** |
4% to 32%** |
|
Most recently reported four quarters |
4/4 beats = 100% | 6.5% | 4.1% to 8.5% |
Data source: Nvidia. Calculations by author. *Earnings in the form of adjusted earnings per share (EPS). **Rounded to the nearest whole number.
Nvidia stock's movements following earnings releases
Long-term investors should focus on Nvidia's results, rather than the stock price movement after the release. Guidance and overall market dynamics typically play significant roles in a stock's post-earnings-release performance.
The following data shows the magnitude of Nvidia's earnings beat and the stock price movement on the day following the release for the prior 10 quarters. Why 10? Consider this period the "Generative AI Era." Nvidia has reported 10 quarters since generative AI began significantly boosting its data center platform's results in early 2023. Generative AI first wowed many consumers and tech leaders alike when OpenAI released its ChatGPT chatbot in November 2022.
| Quarter | Period Ending | Magnitude of Earnings Beat/(Miss)* | Stock Price Change Day After Earnings Release |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 fiscal 2026 | Late July 2025 | 4% | (0.8%) |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 | Late April 2025 | 8% | 3.3% |
| Q4 fiscal 2025 | Late January 2025 | 5% | (8.5%) |
| Q3 fiscal 2025 | Late October 2024 | 9% | 0.5% |
| Q2 fiscal 2024 | Late July 2024 | 6% | (6.4%) |
| Q1 fiscal 2025 | Late April 2024 | 10% | 9.3% |
| Q4 fiscal 2024 | Late January 2024 | 12% | 16.4% |
| Q3 fiscal 2024 | Late October 2023 | 19% |
(2.5%) |
| Q2 fiscal 2024 | Late July 2023 | 32% |
0.1% |
| Q1 fiscal 2024 | Late April 2023 | 18% |
24.4% |
Data sources: Nvidia's earnings reports, Yahoo! Finance, and YCharts. *Rounded to the nearest whole number.
Nvidia stock didn't rise every time the company beat Wall Street's earnings estimate, as the chart shows. Guidance and overall market dynamics nearly always play big roles in a stock's performance following an earnings release.
There can also be other factors. Take Nvidia's most recent quarterly release, fiscal Q2. The quarter's revenue and earnings exceeded Wall Street's expectations, as did the top and bottom lines for Q3 guidance. Nonetheless, the stock edged down slightly. That was likely due to investors' concerns over the uncertainty surrounding the China data center AI chip situation at that time.
Focus on data in the earnings release, not the market's immediate reaction
In short, long-term investors should focus on the data in the earnings release, rather than the market's immediate reaction. Over the short term, there can sometimes be a disconnect between a company's financial results and its stock price. However, as long as Nvidia continues to deliver strong results and guidance, its stock price is likely to rise over the long term.
Should you invest $1,000 in Nvidia right now?
Before you buy stock in Nvidia, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Nvidia wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $624,230!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,187,967!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 1,069% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 195% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of November 10, 2025
Beth McKenna has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia and Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Recommended Articles
