Vietnam: Strong growth but inflation challenges SBV – Commerzbank

Commerzbank strategists Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim note that Vietnam’s Q1 GDP grew 7.8% year-on-year, slightly above expectations but below the government’s 10% 2026 target. Exports and imports surged, reflecting robust external demand and precautionary inventory building. Inflation accelerated to 4.7%, above the State Bank of Vietnam’s target, while USD/VND stayed stable as the central bank maintained a steady fixing to limit volatility.

Robust activity and rising inflation

"Q1 GDP rose more than expected by 7.8% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 7.6%) vs 8.5% in Q4 2025."

"On monthly data, March exports surged 20.1% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 16.5%) vs 5.7% in February despite rising global headwinds due to the conflict in the Middle East."

"On the inflation front, March CPI rose more than expected by 4.7% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 4.0%) vs 3.4% in February, slightly above the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) target of 4.5%."

"USD/VND was flat yesterday at around 26,337."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)