Netherlands: Resilient growth faces war risks – ING

ING economists Bert Colijn and Marcel Klok note that recent data show the Dutch economy entering 2026 with solid momentum, supported by stronger-than-expected GDP figures and resilient labour markets. They warn that the Middle East war raises downside risks through energy and transport disruptions, but still expect Dutch GDP to grow, assuming the conflict remains relatively short and contained.

Growth momentum meets geopolitical headwinds

"The Middle East war has sharply increased the risks to the Dutch economic outlook by disrupting global energy and transport markets. There’s major uncertainty about how long these pressures will persist. The Netherlands is relatively exposed as a major logistics hub and a significant importer of energy."

"Overall, the Dutch economy has been quite resilient to recent shocks. It came out of the pandemic quite well. It required only moderate fiscal support relative to other advanced economies and experienced a faster GDP recovery."

"The previous energy crisis resulted in higher inflation than in other countries and only a modest decline in GDP. "

"Unemployment remained under control throughout, and fiscal support for households limited the economic impact on the downside, including during the 2022 energy shock. A real recession with lasting high unemployment never materialised. And last year’s trade war did not result in a decline in export growth."

"However, these past episodes offer no guarantee going forward, and vulnerabilities remain with very low gas reserves."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)