US: Payrolls slide and participation drop – UOB

UOB’s Global Economics & Markets Research notes a major setback in the US jobs market in February, as Non-farm payrolls fell 92,000, the largest drop since October 2025. Unemployment edged up to 4.4% and labour force data were heavily revised, pushing participation down to 62.0%, further below the pre-pandemic high, while wage growth accelerated to 0.4% m/m and 3.8% y/y.

Broad-based losses and softer participation

"After a strong start in Jan, the non-farm payrolls (NFP) for Feb came in at -92,000 (well below the Bloomberg median est 55,000 and no analyst penciled in a negative payroll with the lowest forecast at +10,000), the largest decrease since Oct 2025 (-140,000)."

"The other surprise was the unemployment rate which edged higher to 4.4% in Feb (from 4.3% in Jan, 4.4% in Dec), adding to the pessimism of the Feb job losses."

"As a result, the labor force participation rate edged lower by 0.1ppt to 62.0% in Feb, but it should be noted that the rate in Jan was revised markedly lower to 62.1% (from previous est. 62.5%) due to the sharp revision in Jan labor force numbers. And it is now even further from the pre-pandemic high (63.3%)."

"Job losses were broad-based in Feb, with the private sector bearing the brunt, at -86,000 versus the -6,000 of government positions."

"Wages continued to rise and at a faster pace, by 0.4% m/m, 3.8% y/y in Feb (versus Bloomberg est of 0.3% m/m, 3.7% y/y, and 0.4% m/m, 3.7% y/y in Jan)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)