US: Trumpism, energy leverage and China – Rabobank

Rabobank links the Iran strikes to a broader US ‘Grand Macro Strategy’ under Trumpism, aimed at controlling key raw materials and energy flows that China relies on. The report suggests flipping Iran could bolster the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor, constrain China, and entrench unilateral US hard power if regime change is swift and oil prices fall back.

Grand strategy targets energy and supply chains

"So, why did Trump do this now? Because there was a strike opportunity; reportedly, a U.S. fear of an Iranian missile launch; Iran was rearming - China was about to supply it with new advanced missiles; India's Modi had just talked up an alliance with Israel; and above all as the attack on Iran is an essential part of his Grand Macro Strategy to retain 21st century hegemony vs a rising China."

"We've previously explained that Chinese control of supply chains and rare earths is an U.S. Achilles’ heel. The logical response is to ensure the raw materials China relies on --where it cannot project hard power now and the U.S. can-- are in U.S. or U.S.-allied hands."

"This concept predicted the coup de main in Venezuela. The logic for Iran is clearer given it supplies China with much more energy that Venezuela did."

"There are parallel parts of the Trump plan in play. If Iran is flipped, it opens up the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) that ties India’s growing economy to the West’s via the Middle East’s energy - with no role for China and the Belt and Road initiative effectively subverted. This would be impossible to achieve if Iran continued to play spoiler."

"If we see quick regime change, even just via a changing of the revolutionary guard as in Caracas, Trumpism will be entrenched. Most U.S. voters will appreciate the win; oil prices will fall and stay low; and all Middle Power ‘strategic autonomy’ alternatives to US hard power will be revealed as an irrelevance."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)