Emerging markets: AI boom supports growth outlook – BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas argues that Emerging Markets will remain supported in 2026 by strong global investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure and related supply chains. The bank estimates Emerging Market growth slowed only slightly to 4.1% from 4.3%, with AI-driven demand for electronic goods, energy and critical raw materials a key driver. The report stresses that AI adoption will transmit mainly via trade channels rather than immediate productivity gains.

AI infrastructure demand underpins EM growth

"In our baseline scenario for 2026, these supportive factors are expected to continue, even if they lessen. Growth in emerging economies is expected to slow only very moderately, reaching an average of 4.1% according to our forecast."

"Currently, the impact of AI expansion on the growth of emerging economies (excluding China) is mainly driven by the knock-on effects of investment in physical AI infrastructure."

"In general, emerging economies are less well positioned than advanced economies to benefit from the adoption and diffusion of AI (the average AIPI index for G7 countries is 0.72). However, they are generally better positioned within AI supply chains."

"As a result, countries that are well positioned within AI supply chains—primarily producers of critical metals, electricity and advanced semiconductors—have both a growth engine and a geopolitical asset."

"This advantage is likely to strengthen in the short term, provided that the boom in investment in data centres and other AI infrastructure continues."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)