Thailand: BOT seen delivering final 25 bps cut – UOB

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research highlights that Thailand’s economy remains a low‑growth, low‑inflation outlier, even as authorities project modest improvement in 2026 and 2027. Despite some upside risks to near‑term growth, UOB expects 2026 to mark the cyclical trough and continues to forecast a final 25 bps policy rate cut at the upcoming BOT meeting.

Low growth and inflation justify further easing

"Looking ahead, the authorities project 2026 growth at 1.5–2.5% (midpoint 2.0%) with headline inflation at -0.3 to 0.7%."

"While noting the upside risks to the near-term growth outlook, we maintain our medium-term view that 2026 marks the cyclical trough (1.8%), before a rebound to 2.5% in 2027."

"Beyond 2026, Thailand stands out as a low growth/low inflation economy relative to the global backdrop, reinforcing that the constraint is not only cyclical demand but also structural potential growth."

"We maintain our view that the BOT is likely to cut the policy rate (1-day repurchase rate) by 25bps to 1.00% at the 25 Feb 2026 MPC meeting, from 1.25% currently."

"We see this as the terminal rate for the cycle."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)