When is the Germany ZEW Survey and how it could affect EUR/USD?
German ZEW Survey Overview
The Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) will release its German Economic Sentiment Index and the Current Situation Index for February at 10:00 GMT later on Tuesday.
ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment Index for Germany is expected to rise to 65.0 in February, from 59.6 that came in January. Meanwhile, the Current Situation Sub-Index is expected to improve to -65.7 in the reported month, up from the previous reading of -72.7.
ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment in Eurozone is expected to improve to 45.2 in February, from 40.8 previously.
How could the German ZEW Survey affect EUR/USD?
The EUR/USD pair may stay subdued if Germany’s ZEW Survey data meet forecasts, as earlier Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) figures for January offered little support for the Euro (EUR). However, the Euro may gain support as the European Central Bank (ECB) announced to expand global access to the EUR liquidity backstop to bolster the currency’s international role.
The EUR/USD pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) holds firm, with traders cautious ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes. Attention will then turn to Q4 Gross Domestic Product Annualized and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday for clearer policy signals.
Technically, the EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.1830 at the time of writing. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator at 53 (neutral) signals consolidation with a modest upside lean. The immediate resistance lies at the psychological level of 1.1850, aligned with the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1854. On the downside, the primary support lies at the 50-day EMA at 1.1773.
German economy FAQs
The German economy has a significant impact on the Euro due to its status as the largest economy within the Eurozone. Germany's economic performance, its GDP, employment, and inflation, can greatly influence the overall stability and confidence in the Euro. As Germany's economy strengthens, it can bolster the Euro's value, while the opposite is true if it weakens. Overall, the German economy plays a crucial role in shaping the Euro's strength and perception in global markets.
Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone and therefore an influential actor in the region. During the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis in 2009-12, Germany was pivotal in setting up various stability funds to bail out debtor countries. It took a leadership role in the implementation of the 'Fiscal Compact' following the crisis – a set of more stringent rules to manage member states’ finances and punish ‘debt sinners’. Germany spearheaded a culture of ‘Financial Stability’ and the German economic model has been widely used as a blueprint for economic growth by fellow Eurozone members.
Bunds are bonds issued by the German government. Like all bonds they pay holders a regular interest payment, or coupon, followed by the full value of the loan, or principal, at maturity. Because Germany has the largest economy in the Eurozone, Bunds are used as a benchmark for other European government bonds. Long-term Bunds are viewed as a solid, risk-free investment as they are backed by the full faith and credit of the German nation. For this reason they are treated as a safe-haven by investors – gaining in value in times of crisis, whilst falling during periods of prosperity.
German Bund Yields measure the annual return an investor can expect from holding German government bonds, or Bunds. Like other bonds, Bunds pay holders interest at regular intervals, called the ‘coupon’, followed by the full value of the bond at maturity. Whilst the coupon is fixed, the Yield varies as it takes into account changes in the bond's price, and it is therefore considered a more accurate reflection of return. A decline in the bund's price raises the coupon as a percentage of the loan, resulting in a higher Yield and vice versa for a rise. This explains why Bund Yields move inversely to prices.
The Bundesbank is the central bank of Germany. It plays a key role in implementing monetary policy within Germany, and central banks in the region more broadly. Its goal is price stability, or keeping inflation low and predictable. It is responsible for ensuring the smooth operation of payment systems in Germany and participates in the oversight of financial institutions. The Bundesbank has a reputation for being conservative, prioritizing the fight against inflation over economic growth. It has been influential in the setup and policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).
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