BoJ’s Nagakawa: Will make appropriate policy decision

Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Junko Nagakawa said in his scheduled speech on Monday, “BoJ will make appropriate policy decision taking into account uncertainty surrounding trade policies remains high.”

Additional takeaways

Companies retaining capex appetite despite impact of US tariffs, uncertainty over outlook.

Consumption remains firm but demand for non-durable goods weakening due to rising food prices.

Services consumption moving sideways after increasing moderately as a trend.

Medium-, long-term inflation expectations heightening gradually towards 2% as a whole.

No change to baseline scenario on overseas economy.

Japanese corporate profits likely to weaken due to tariff impact, but improve thereafter as overseas economy recovers, consumption increases due to rising real wages.

Consumption likely to move sideways but resume moderate uptrend as inflation moderates.

Among risks I am focusing on include outlook of us economy such as chance that impact of tariff on economy, prices may prove bigger than expected, growth expectations for ai-driven investment change.

Another risk is impact of trade policy on global economy, increase in chinese exports to non-US markets could weigh on global, Japanese economies.

Japanese companies becoming more active in raising prices, wages, which could affect households' sentiment, inflation expectations.

There is also risk rising inflation could weaken demand, prod firms to cut costs and discourage them from raising wages.