USD trading defensively as markets eye Wednesday’s Fed – Scotiabank

The US Dollar (USD) is entering the week with a defensive posture and trading with broad weakness against all of the G10 currencies, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

USD trading broadly lower vs. G10

"The GBP is outperforming with a 0.3% gain, ahead of a data-heavy (jobs, CPI) week that also includes Thursday’s BoE (exp. hold). Skandies NOK and SEK are also leading their peers, and extending their gains to fresh multi-year highs vs. the USD. The JPY is once again trading above its 50 day MA and continues to exhibit a tentatively bullish posture as we approach Friday’s BoJ—a widely anticipated hold, albeit one that is expected to deliver a hawkish tone with a clear intention to raise rates in either October or December."

"The EUR continues to build on last week’s ECB-driven gains and is likely to remain well supported through Wednesday’s Fed. The relative underperformance of AUD, CAD, MXN and NZD may hint to some concerns about the quality of the broader market’s tone. In equities, the (S&P 500) e-minis are looking well supported trading just below Friday’s record high while US yields appear to be stabilizing just above last week’s lows—the 10Y having found support around 4% and the having bounced at 3.5%. The price of crude (WTI) is once again attempting stabilization around $62.50/bbl and the price of copper looks well supported as it consolidates last week’s rally to a fresh recovery high."

"Gold prices are also consolidating, appearing to tread water ahead of this week’s main risk event—Wednesday’s FOMC. The Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25bpt rate cut, to 4.25%, and the tone is expected to lean dovish given expectations for a series of cuts as markets are pricing a cumulative 70bpts of easing by year-end and just shy of 150bpts by year-end 2026. For Monday, the NA release calendar is relatively light and limited to the Empire manufacturing survey at 8:30am ET. There are no scheduled Fed speakers, given the blackout period ahead of Wednesday."