US Dollar Index gathers strength to near 99.00 on Middle East tensions, robust US services data
- US Dollar Index strengthens to around 99.00 in Thursday’s early European session.
- Fears of a prolonged war in the Middle East boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the DXY.
- US services sector activity surged to a 3.5-year high in February.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.00 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The DXY edges higher amid uncertainty and persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
Israel said it was launching new strikes across Iran as well as against what it described as Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut. Meanwhile, the Iranian government denied reports that it had sent a message to the US amid the ongoing conflict.
Tehran declared that the armed forces had prepared for a long-term war instead of negotiating. Fears of a prolonged war could drive traders toward safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar in the near term.
Economic activity in the US service sector gathered momentum in February, with the SM Services PMI rising to 56.1 from 53.8 in January. This figure came in stronger than the market expectations of 53.5. The resilient economic data might contribute to the DXY’s upside.
Markets widely expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to leave the interest rate unchanged until the summer, though US President Donald Trump has pushed for lower rates.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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