US Dollar Index rises to near 98.00 due to Fed hawkish signals
- US Dollar Index strengthens on hawkish Fed signals and expectations of a slower pace of rate cuts.
- Fed’s Cook said she won’t support further cuts without clearer evidence that inflation is easing.
- Markets weigh Warsh’s Fed chair nomination, noting his preference for a smaller balance sheet and fewer rate cuts.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, gains ground for the second successive session and is trading around 97.80 during the Asian hours on Thursday.
The Greenback strengthens on hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and expectations of a slower pace of US rate cuts. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she would not back another cut without clearer evidence that inflation is easing, stressing greater concern over stalled disinflation than labor market weakness.
Moreover, the implications of Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed chair are citing his preference for a smaller balance sheet and a less aggressive approach to rate reductions. However, US President Donald Trump said he would not have nominated Warsh if he favored rate hikes. Trump further stated that there was “not much” doubt the US central bank would lower rates because “we’re way high in interest,” but now “we’re a rich country again.”
On the data front, the ADP Employment Change showed private payrolls increased by just 22K in January, well below market expectations for a stronger 48K reading and 37K (revised from 41K) prior. The weak print carried extra weight given the postponement of official government data. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) remained unchanged in January, with the ISM Services PMI holding steady at 53.8. The print, however, came in above analysts' expectations of 53.5.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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