Trump, von der Leyen set to meet in Scotland to avoid war in EU-US trade talks

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is meeting President Donald Trump on Sunday in Scotland, trying to hammer out a last-minute trade deal before U.S. tariffs on European Union goods hit 30% on August 1.

The announcement came Friday after Ursula posted on X, saying the two had agreed to meet “to discuss transatlantic trade relations, and how we can keep them strong.”

Trump confirmed the meeting the same day after landing in Scotland, telling reporters, “We’ll see if we can make a deal. I think we have a good 50/50 chance. That’s a lot.”

The stakes are high. Trump’s warning about steep tariffs has pushed the EU to rush into a potential framework deal. Talks are leaning toward a 15% tariff baseline on EU goods coming into the U.S., matching the deal the Trump administration recently signed with Japan.

That Japan agreement, which Trump described on social media as “perhaps the largest Deal ever made,” is now being used as a reference point for Europe. The EU is trying to avoid a trade war, but they’re also preparing for one if Sunday’s meeting fails.

Trump’s tariff threat puts pressure on Brussels

If the meeting falls apart, Brussels is ready to hit back. A list of retaliatory tariffs worth €93 billion (roughly $109.4 billion) is already on standby. These duties could be activated just days after the U.S. move. The list merges multiple previous versions into a single plan targeting U.S. products.

On top of that, the EU is discussing the use of its Anti-Coercion Instrument, a trade weapon that would restrict American access to the European market. That means U.S. companies could be blocked from bidding on public projects across the bloc.

There could also be limits on U.S. exports, imports, and foreign direct investment. The tool has been called the “nuclear option” inside Brussels, and while it hasn’t been activated yet, conversations about using it have picked up.

France is currently the only country demanding immediate action if the talks fail. But officials told CNBC that “there seems to be a broad qualified majority voting for establishing coercion.” That signals political backing for serious retaliation if Trump follows through on the 30% tariffs.

UK, Japan already locked in trade deals with Trump

Trump is in Scotland for a four-day visit that includes golf and politics. Besides his Sunday meeting with Ursula, he’s also expected to hold an informal session with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Britain isn’t caught up in the tariff drama. It already signed a trade deal with the Trump administration earlier this year, agreeing to a 10% baseline tariff on goods sent to the U.S.

That puts the EU at a disadvantage. Both Japan and the UK have deals in place. The EU doesn’t. Economists say a bad deal may be the only way out. Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief eurozone economist at Capital Economics, said Friday:

“Reports this week suggest that the EU and US are on the brink of agreeing a trade deal with a 15% baseline tariff on US imports from the bloc. It’s hard to spin it as a good deal, but it would at least avoid much higher US tariffs and retaliation from the EU.”

The Trump administration hasn’t made any final decisions yet. But with just days left before the new tariffs hit, both sides are under pressure to come up with something. The U.S. and EU together account for 43% of global GDP and nearly 30% of all global trade, according to the European Commission.

The meeting on Sunday could determine what happens next. Either they land on a 15% deal and avoid escalation, or tariffs spike and both sides start firing back. No one expects a perfect solution, but neither side wants to be blamed for blowing up the largest trade partnership in the world.

KEY Difference Wire: the secret tool crypto projects use to get guaranteed media coverage