Complacent markets get a jolt with Trump’s latest 30% tariff threats

Contrary to investor expectations, Trump announced a 30% tariff rate on the European Union and Mexico, set to take effect on August 1.

Markets had started growing complacent to Trump’s threats, but his latest revelations could change that. Trump insists he will implement more levies on Japan, South Korea, Canada, Brazil, Algeria, and other trading partners, calling on them to negotiate deals.

Trump warns that any retaliation will lead to higher levies

Bankers and executives, including JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, cautioned against the growing market complacency. However, investors remained adamant, believing the US president would back down on the levies as he had done previously.

Meanwhile, Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, has told investors not to count on Trump dropping his 30% tariff threat on the EU. He called the tariffs “punitive” but claimed they would harm the EU more than the US, hinting that Trump may not necessarily stop them.

So far, Mexico’s government has called the levies unfair and stressed its independence and sovereignty as a country. On the other hand, the EU Commission’s chief, Ursula von der Leyen, responded with a warning of reciprocal action. Despite the mounting tensions, both remain open to further negotiations with Washington.

In a letter addressed Friday to the European Commission President, he detailed that despite years of dialogue, the US-EU trade relationship remains unbalanced, defined by persistent deficits.

While addressing Mexico, President Trump acknowledged their cooperation on border security but remarked, “Mexico has been helping me secure the border. BUT, what Mexico has done is not enough,” hence the 30% tariffs. In both correspondences, however, he clarified that retaliatory actions would prompt the US to raise tariffs even further.

Meanwhile, speaking in a Fox News segment that aired on Saturday, the US President noted that several countries were enraged with his decision, but defended the tariffs, claiming they were bringing vast sums of revenue into the country. The EU has been a target for Trump’s tariffs since April. He initially proposed a 20% levy on goods from the bloc and other trade partners, before later threatening to increase it to 50% as negotiations broke down.

Investors react differently compared to when Trump announced his April tariffs 

Major cryptocurrencies have fallen slightly since Trump’s tariff announcement. Bitcoin, the top crypto asset by market capitalization, slipped 0.6% from its European session peak of $118,200. Ether (ETH) also declined, trading 1% lower on the day at $2,930 (UTC), while Solana (SOL) and Dogecoin (DOGE) dropped over 2%. Moreover, the BNB token fell 0.7%. Only XRP gained close to 2% among leading crypto assets after the announcement.

Despite the crypto losses, Wall Street investors are proving hard to scare. In Trump’s tariff notices to his trading allies, he reportedly left room for adjustments that could reduce the rates, and urged his allies to negotiate for better deals.

According to Jacobsen, this has calmed some of the investors’ concerns about the tariff situation. He commented, “As usual, there are many conditions and clauses that can get these rates reduced. That’s probably why the market might not like the tariff talk, but it’s not panicking about it either.”

When Trump announced the first batch of reciprocal tariffs in April, the market reacted frantically by selling some of their assets and US treasuries. However, with this round of tariffs, they seem more relaxed, as the president paused all his earlier levies, and they strongly believe he will do the same this time round. 

Trump’s setting of the deadline for negotiation on August 1 has not even deterred the markets. However, stocks dwindled marginally on Friday when Trump increased his trade offensive.

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