Bitcoin Tests May Highs: Why Is This Time Different for Recent Buyers?

Bitcoin (BTC) price climbed to $81,050 on Friday, returning to the level it last touched on May 14. Recent buyers now sit far further from breakeven than they did then.

Glassnode data shows the average entry price for coins younger than 155 days has dropped sharply. Bitcoin, meanwhile, trades at almost the same level as in May.

Bitcoin price on-chain divergence comparison, May versus September 2026 / Source: BeInCrypto

Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Reset Almost $7,500 Lower

Short-Term Holder MVRV measures how far recent buyers sit above or below their average entry. The reading closed at 1.1415 on September 3, against 1.0298 on May 14.

Both dates share nearly the same price. May 14 closed at $81,059.69, while September 3 closed at $81,261.98, a difference of just 0.25%.

Short term holder MVRV / Source: Glassnode

The implied cost basis, in contrast, tells a different story. It stood near $78,713 in May and sits near $71,188 today, a reset of roughly $7,500.

That changes the margin for error. In May, a 2.9% dip would have pushed the whole cohort back underwater. The dip arrived, and the rally unwound toward the low $60,000s.

Today the same cohort holds a 12.4% buffer, more than four times wider. Historically, that buffer has decided whether recoveries hold or fail.

SOPR Shows Profit Without Distribution

The cushion looks encouraging. Spent Output Profit Ratio, however, complicates the picture.

SOPR printed 1.0082 on September 3. Coins moving on-chain therefore changed hands at less than 1% average profit.

Comparable breakouts produced far hotter readings. SOPR reached 1.086 in November 2024 and 1.179 in July 2025.

Spent output profit ratio (SOPR) / Source: Glassnode

Long-term holders appear inactive. Their coins carry the largest multiples, so meaningful selling would lift the ratio well above current levels.

Yet the same reading cuts both ways. Weekly volume keeps declining, and the spike behind last week’s breakout has not repeated. Thin participation may indicate tight supply among holders, or a move driven by derivatives rather than spot buyers.

Bitcoin Price Prediction and the $82,842 Trigger

The weekly chart shows a sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the $126,200 record. That sequence is now breaking. Bitcoin has printed a higher low and trades 35.8% below its all-time high.

A weekly close above $82,842 would confirm the first higher high since the record. The current weekly high reached $82,285, roughly $557 short.

BTC weekly chart / Source: Tradingview

Resistance sits immediately above at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $83,917. A break of the trigger that stalls there would leave the reversal unconfirmed.

Support looks unusually well defined. The 200-day moving average sits at $69,664 and the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $70,855. The on-chain cost basis at $71,188 completes a band just 2.16% wide.

Bitcoin last tested that moving average as resistance on May 14. It now trades 16.3% above it.

BTC daily chart / Source: Tradingview

Momentum warns against chasing. Daily RSI sits near 72 after touching 78 in late August, an early bearish divergence. Weekly RSI near 60, by contrast, still leaves room. A volume expansion would settle the argument.

Above $83,917 the reversal gains confirmation. Below $71,188 the buyers behind this move lose their profit.