UBS warns investors to stay cautious as volatility explodes

Silver has gone completely wild. After climbing to its highest level this year, the metal crashed almost 30% last Friday. Then it bounced, dropped again, and bounced again.

By Thursday night, spot silver prices had fallen as much as 10%, then jumped more than 2%, landing at $73 per ounce by 11:30 p.m. ET. New York silver futures were still lower, trading at $72.34, down over 5%.

It didn’t stop there. The week was filled with violent swings. Silver dropped on Monday, jumped Tuesday and Wednesday, then sank again Thursday by another 19%.

Since January began, the metal has had 11 separate days where prices jumped or fell by at least 5%, based on LSEG data. UBS called it a risk-off panic, not a collapse in the basics. But they also said it’s too dangerous to bet on this thing right now.

UBS warns investors to stay cautious as volatility explodes

UBS analysts told clients that volatility is now over 100% for one-month silver contracts.“Significant price swings are likely in the near term,” they said in a note Thursday.

They made it clear they don’t recommend buying silver at current levels. They also said the metal probably won’t stay above $85 per ounce unless investors keep piling in.

Even though they’re cautious for now, UBS still believes the bigger picture looks okay. They expect the world economy to recover by 2026, and said lower interest rates and concerns about global debt and the falling dollar could support silver later on.

They’re also forecasting a 300 million ounce supply shortfall this year, while investment demand could hit 400 million ounces. But high prices might push manufacturers to use less of it.

UBS pointed out that option prices are getting expensive, and some traders are now just betting silver won’t drop too far. With volatility near 80%, the bank said trades that pay off if silver stays above $65 per ounce are looking more attractive than ones chasing gains.

AGQ selloff sparks biggest intraday crash in silver history

The biggest damage came on January 30, triggered by the AGQ ETF, also known as 2x ProShares Ultra Silver ETF. The fund is built to double the daily gain or loss in silver futures, so it rebalances every day at 1:25 p.m. ET, based on how much it’s up or down.

That day, silver was already down nearly 33% by the time AGQ had to adjust. Because it was holding too much, the fund dumped nearly $4 billion in silver futures into the market.

Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank confirmed this, saying the fund was forced to offload its long position as part of its daily reset.

That sale came when prices were already falling fast. The entire market was crowded. The sell order just made things worse. Silver fell harder than ever before.

Before this chaos, silver had been rallying all through January, helped by strong buying from retail investors in China and the West, along with a wave of call-option purchases.

Retail demand and leveraged ETFs distort trading patterns

Products like AGQ and the WisdomTree Silver 3x Daily Leveraged ETF are now so big they can affect prices during trading hours.

Bloomberg Intelligence reported that nearly a third of all new ETFs last year had leverage built in. For a metal as unstable as silver, that kind of leverage adds fuel to every spike or crash.

Nicky Shiels from MKS Pamp said this has turned silver into something that doesn’t look like a normal commodity. “Silver is certainly being labeled as a meme stock or commodity given its outsized volatility,” she said.

Nicky also pointed out that silver isn’t even cheap, but retail access has opened the floodgates to speculation. Shiels doesn’t expect a quick bounce and warned that the metal could drop to $60 per ounce while traders digest the fallout.

Vasu Menon from OCBC agreed that the volatility has damaged short-term confidence. But he still sees a case for silver for investors who can handle wild price action.

“Silver can be viewed as a hybrid asset with characteristics of a precious metal, industrial metal, and elements of speculation,” Menon said. He acknowledged it feels like a meme asset now, but said it still has real reasons behind its price. His long-term target is $134 per ounce by March 2027.

Silver is still used in solar tech, electronics, and catalysts, but none of that has stopped the current chaos. Until the leveraged products cool off and retail flows calm down, it’s going to stay unstable.

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