Crypto traders eye Fed clues with Bitcoin stuck in range

Bitcoin is treading water at around $113,000, drifting in tight ranges as traders sit on their hands ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole later today. The Fed chair’s final outing at the central bankers’ summit has turned into the main event for risk assets. Investors are trying to guess whether he’ll stick to caution or finally hint at rate cuts.

The cumulative market cap remained marginally down at $3.85 trillion, printing red indexes all around. Ethereum posted minimal gains among the top 10 cryptos, meanwhile, XRP, Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin continued their losses. The fear and greed index is flashing “Neutral” sentiments among investors.

Bitcoin stalls ahead of Powell

For now, momentum has clearly stalled. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, in an X post, stated, “Will Jay cut and become Trump’s twink, or choose violence becoming Volker 2.0?” He added that “I want no cut bc it forces Trump get funky w/ the brr btn. Just like Bad Gurl Yellen in 2022 issues more bills than bonds to drain the RRP after Powell refused to cut.”

Derivatives markets show nerves are rising. On Deribit, the put-to-call ratio for August contracts has climbed to 1.31, with $3.8 billion set to expire Friday. Traders are piling into $110,000 puts, effectively betting that the next move is lower. Skew has jumped to four-month highs, a clear sign that demand for downside protection is on the rise.

🚨 Options Expiry Alert 🚨
At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, over $4.8B in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit.$BTC: $3.83B notional | Put/Call: 1.31 | Max Pain: $118K$ETH: $948M notional | Put/Call: 0.82 | Max Pain: $4,250

BTC expiry tilts put-heavy, while ETH call interest… pic.twitter.com/AGuHa2Txxs

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) August 21, 2025

Bitcoin is rolling down after touching a record $124,000 in mid-August. BTC price is down by 5% in the last 7 days despite being up by 21% on YTD. Bitcoin is trading at an average price of $112,926 at the press time. However, Ether has managed to claw back some ground. The biggest altcoin is running up by 17% over the last 30 days while losing 7% over the past 7 days.

Dovish Powell could spark a rebound

ETF flows have added another layer of pressure on the crypto market. After weeks of huge inflows, Bitcoin funds bled nearly $1 billion this week, while Ether products lost more than $550 million. The selling was largely profit-taking and liquidations after Bitcoin’s August peak.

All of it leaves Powell’s remarks as the next catalyst. Traders say a dovish signal could spark a sharp rebound, but if Powell doubles down on inflation risks, the pullback could easily deepen. The Fed’s minutes this week made clear that officials still see price pressures as outweighing employment concerns even as new Trump tariffs loom.

Trump himself has repeatedly blasted Powell for dragging his feet on cuts. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has even suggested Trump could name a replacement before year-end, making this likely Powell’s swan song at Jackson Hole.

Federal Reserve officials have reportedly signaled caution ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, casting doubt on a September rate cut. Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack and Kansas City’s Jeffrey Schmid said the data doesn’t justify easing yet. Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic and Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee left the door open but flagged sticky inflation risks.

Get $50 free to trade crypto when you sign up to Bybit now