More than half of Kalshi traders now bet on Gemini to win the AI race

Google’s Gemini has passed OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Elon Musk’s Grok in Kalshi’s prediction market, as 59% of traders now bet that Gemini will end 2025 as the top AI text model.

Traders buy and sell contracts on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction market where people bet on real events. The “best AI model of 2025” bet will close on Dec. 31, 2025, and the result will come from the LM Arena Leaderboard, a public platform that ranks and compares top AI models.

Kalshi traders raise Gemini above ChatGPT and Grok

People are placing real money on the outcome of the AI race, and Gemini’s odds rose to 59% on Tuesday from 48.1% just a day earlier. These results show just how much traders have confidence in its potential. OpenAI’s ChatGPT saw its bets drop to 20% from 25.4%, while Elon Musk’s Grok went from 18.8% to 15%.

Users and investors now believe Gemini will catch up and surpass its rivals due to Google’s consistent release of updates. On the other hand, betters have lost confidence in ChatGPT and Grok, and their ability to lead the market in the long term because of their setbacks. These signals make more sense than regular predictions because Kalshi’s contracts are tied to money, meaning traders weigh risks and rewards whenever odds change. 

This AI race is getting a lot of attention from traders, investors, and tech watchers, as seen in the $7.4 million in trading volume generated from the “best AI model of 2025” contracts on Kalshi. Larger trading volumes in the market reduce the risk of bias and strengthen the reliability of the outcome because they prove that many different participants are responsible for setting the odds and not a small group.

Traders who put their money on Google’s model may receive payouts based on their positions if Gemini maintains its current lead until the contracts close on December 31, 2025. Those who backed ChatGPT and Grok, on the other hand, may lose their stakes.

Google strengthens Gemini while rivals struggle to keep pace

Google’s steady updates attract user interest and confidence from the market. At its recent annual I/O developer conference, Google revealed that its advanced Gemini AI assistant will soon be integrated into vehicles. This latest expansion brings Gemini’s capabilities to cars supporting Android Auto and Android Automotive.

Swedish automaker Volvo, a longtime Google partner, is set to be the first to implement Gemini across its entire model lineup via the Android Automotive system. Volvo confirmed it will be the reference hardware platform for Google’s automotive AI development.

The company also announced multiple improvements on August 15, like the new storybook mode for creating interactive narratives and an upgraded reasoning model for the system to provide accurate answers. It also introduced temporary chats that don’t store user history.

These new features show that Gemini is evolving quickly to meet people’s needs, while also addressing concerns about privacy and personalization to make it more useful for everyday users.

For OpenAI, the release of ChatGPT-5 did not live up to user expectations. CEO Sam Altman even had to defend the model on X after users complained about performance, usefulness, and overall quality. 

Elon Musk’s xAI also struggled to convince users that it can compete with larger, more established models. However, people accuse Grok of being biased because it has produced political content that users claim favors one political side. 

New competitors in the market are also proving that they can compete with Google, OpenAI, and xAI, as Perplexity has offered a massive $34.5 billion cash offer to buy Google’s Chrome browser. This move shows that smaller players can also influence how people access AI services in the future. China’s DeepSeek also released a model that can solve advanced mathematical problems called Prover 2, making it a serious competitor and the AI contest even more unpredictable. 

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