Oil: War risk premium builds on US–Iran tensions – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Michael Every highlights sharply rising geopolitical risks around a potential US–Iran conflict, noting media talk of a high probability of war and expectations of Iranian retaliation across the region. He argues this could be highly market-moving, with Oil and LNG prices likely to spike, and says the US must have a mitigation plan in place for energy market disruption.

Energy markets eye Middle East flashpoints

"We’ve long stressed there’s a high likelihood of a fresh US-Iran conflict, recent US logistics movements said soon, and an Axios headline yesterday refocused oil markets on it."

"The balance of risks now tilts to a US strike after market close Friday, even if the materiel moved to the Middle East suggests any attack is likely to last weeks rather than being over by the Monday open."

"Indeed, expectations are Iran will retaliate across the region, potentially via terror cells in the West (including in Europe), and perhaps in Hormuz directly if the regime sees itself as at risk."

"To say that this could be market- and geopolitics-moving is an understatement."

"Oil, and presumably LNG, prices would spike."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)