Swiss Franc weakens ahead of Unemployment Rate data
- USD/CHF rises as the US Dollar struggles after Fed Governor Waller signals a potential rate pause.
- Market probability for a September Fed rate hike fell to 50.2% following the remarks.
- Brown Brothers Harriman notes Swiss CPI rose to 0.8% YoY, beating the SNB’s 0.6% forecast and signaling firming inflation.
USD/CHF gains ground after registering losses in the previous day, trading around 0.8080 during Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds gains after recovering daily losses; however, the upside of the Greenback could be limited due to easing hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook. Swiss Unemployment Rate would be eyed later in the day.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller indicated a preference for keeping interest rates unchanged at the upcoming September meeting, provided upcoming inflation data contains no major surprises.
Fed Waller's dovish tone stood in sharp contrast to the hawkish stance delivered by Chairman Kevin Warsh just a week earlier. In response to these remarks, market expectations shifted significantly, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating that the probability of a September rate hike dropped to 50.2%, down sharply from 63.2% the previous day.
Investors and market participants are now shifting their focus toward the release of the US August employment report for further clues on monetary policy trajectory. Current market consensus projects Nonfarm Payrolls to increase by 56,000 jobs, while the Unemployment Rate is forecasted to remain steady at 4.1%.
Franc could find support as Swiss inflation tops SNB forecast
Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman highlight that the latest Swiss data delivered a clear upside surprise, with headline CPI rising to “0.8% y/y (consensus: 0.5% y/y) vs. 0.4% in July.” They note this is “the highest since September 2024” and, importantly, it stands “above the SNB’s Q3 forecast of 0.6% y/y,” reinforcing the perception that underlying price pressures are firming. BBH adds that core inflation also moved higher, with “core CPI inflation also surprised to the upside at 0.4% y/y (consensus: 0.3%), following four straight 0.3% readings,” underscoring a gradual but broad-based pickup in Swiss inflation.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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