GBP/USD slips as firm US jobless claims offsets BoE cut bets

• GBP/USD edges lower after jobless claims beat forecasts, signaling US labor resilience.
• Dovish remarks from Stephen Miran contrast with steady-rate expectations at the Federal Reserve.
• Political pressure on Keir Starmer and rising Bank of England easing bets cap Sterling upside.

The Pound Sterling retreats over 0.11% on Thursday as the Greenback remains steady as a report revealed that the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits was below estimates, an indication of the resilience of the labor market. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3544 after reaching a daily high of 1.3574.

Sterling eases as resilient US labor data steadies the Dollar while UK political risks linger

Financial markets sentiment worsened after Nvidia Corp reported earnings and a solid outlook. Nevertheless, the AI rally seems overextended, and market participants are seeking reassurance about the AI outlook. So far, Wall Street has registered losses between 0.28% and 2%.

Initial Jobless Claims in the US for the week ending February 21 rose from 208K to 212K, beneath forecasts of 215K. This and previously released jobs market data during the month revealed some stabilization in the labor market, highlighted by some Federal Reserve officials.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran reaffirmed his dovish stance as he is looking for 1% rate cuts this year. He added that “prices right now seem stable,” and he does not think the US has a problem of inflation.

Across the pond, in the UK, the Prime Minister Keir Starmer is under pressure, following the nomination of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the US, who has ties with Jeffrey Epstein.

Local elections in Gorton and Danton, located in Greater Manchester in northwestern England, are set to take place. Should Starmer's Labor Party fail to secure victory, there may be mounting calls for his removal as leader, a headwind for the British Pound.

Aside from this, there is growing speculation that the Bank of England will reduce rates in the March meeting, after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey commented that a cut in that dat is a “genuinely open question.”

Despite this, Bailey added that services inflation remains high, but on the other hand, the GDP growth was mediocre and a jump in unemployment in Q4 2025 prompted investors to price in further easing by the UK central bank.

Money markets had priced in a 81% chance for a BoE rate cut in the March 19 meeting, according to Prime Market Terminal.

GBP/USD traders focus shifts to Friday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, along with speeches by Federal Reserve officials. In the UK, the calendar is absent except for a speech of the BoE Chief Economist Pill.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3517. The pair sits just above the clustered simple moving averages around 1.3540–1.3535, but price is also capped by a descending resistance trend line from 1.3869, leaving the near-term bias neutral with a slight downside tilt. The long-running ascending support line from 1.3035 still underpins the broader uptrend, yet repeated failures along the falling resistance line and the softening Fed Sentiment Index highlight waning bullish momentum and the risk of a deeper pullback if spot slips decisively below the nearby averages.

Initial support emerges around 1.3500, in line with recent lows and just beneath the ascending trend-line zone, with a break exposing the next downside area near 1.3460 and then 1.3400. On the topside, the descending trend line now acts as immediate resistance around 1.3550, followed by last week’s highs near 1.3635 and the 1.3800 region, where prior peaks converge and a sustained break would be needed to revive a clear bullish continuation.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)