USD/CAD consolidates losses near 1.4000, awaiting US reopening
- The Dollar finds support at 1.4000 against the Loonie but remains capped below 1.4020.
- Investors remain wary of risk, awaiting the US congressional vote on the Government funding bill.
- The Greenback sold off in previous days as Canadian employment curbed hopes of further BoC easing.
The US Dollar halted its sell-off against its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday, with bears capped above the 1.4000 psychological level, following a 0.7% decline in the previous three trading days. Upside attempts, however, remain capped below 1.4020 for now.
Market volatility remains subdued on Wednesday, with investors wary of taking excessive risks, as they await the vote in the US Congress that would ratify the bill to end the largest US Government shutdown in history. Such an outcome would allow for the release of a slew of delayed reports that are expected to provide a more accurate picture of the US economic outlook and the Federal Reserve rate path.
Dwindling hopes of BoC cuts boost the CAD
The Greenback lost ground earlier this week due to a combination of strong Canadian employment figures and some hawkish comments from the Bank of Canada (BoC), which have diminished expectations for further monetary easing in the near term. Beyond that, a recovery in Crude prices completed the US Dollar's bearish picture.
In the US, the downbeat private employment data seen on Tuesday increased concerns about the deterioration of the US labour market and heightened hopes that the Fed will be forced to prioritize employment over inflation, and cut rates for the third consecutive time in December.
Later in the day, a batch of Fed officials is expected to provide further clues about next month’s monetary policy decision. In Canada, the focus will be on the Summary of Opinions of the BoC’s last Governing Council, which might have some impact on the Canadian Dollar’s volatility.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
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