USD/CAD remains steady near 1.3900 with US GDP data on focus
- The US Dollar retreated from highs above 1.3900 against the CAD, but remains steady above 1.3885.
- Investors have remained cautious on Thursday, awaiting US GDP data and more Fed speeches.
- The highlight of the week is Friday's PCE Prices index release, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge.
The US Dollar has been trading within a narrow range near the 1.3900 level on Thursday, with downside attempts held at 1.3885. The cautious market mood amid ongoing gei¡opolitical risks and a not-so-dovish rhetoric by Fed speakers is keeping US Dollar bears at bay for now.
The focus now is on the final reading of the US second quarter’s Gross Domestic Product, which is expected to confirm that a rebound to a 3.3% annualised growth after the 0.5% contraction seen in the first three months of the year.
Later on, another batch of Fed speakers might provide further clues about the central bank’s monetary policy plans. The highlight of the week, however, will be Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which will be analyzed with interest for more evidence of the inflationary impact of Trump’s tariffs.
On Wednesday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly confirmed that the bank will have to ease its monetary policy further, but she warned that the next rate cut might take some time, as the bank needs to balance its two mandates, promoting employment and keeping inflation at low levels.
Canada’s economic docket has been thin this week, but BoC Governor, Tiff Macklem, highlighted shifts in global trade and financial flows as the main threats to Canada’s growth and warned that inflation would go up as a consequence of the trade frictions with the US
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product Annualized
The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, released quarterly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States in a given period of time. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Thu Sep 25, 2025 12:30
Frequency: Quarterly
Consensus: 3.3%
Previous: 3.3%
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on an annualized basis for each quarter. After publishing the first estimate, the BEA revises the data two more times, with the third release representing the final reading. Usually, the first estimate is the main market mover and a positive surprise is seen as a USD-positive development while a disappointing print is likely to weigh on the greenback. Market participants usually dismiss the second and third releases as they are generally not significant enough to meaningfully alter the growth picture.
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product Price Index
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Price Index, released quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the change in the prices of goods and services produced in the United States. The prices that Americans pay for imports aren’t included. Changes in the GDP price index are followed as an indicator of inflationary pressures, which may anticipate higher interest rates. A high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Thu Sep 25, 2025 12:30
Frequency: Quarterly
Consensus: 2%
Previous: 2%
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
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