Why XRP Keeps Failing Near $2 — The 1.86 Billion Sell Wall Nobody Talks About
XRP price keeps running into the same ceiling, and we finally know why. The focus stays locked on the $2 level. XRP has touched it once in early January 2026, reclaimed short-term trend lines, and even briefly moved above it. Yet rallies keep failing. The real issue is not whether XRP can reach $2. It is whether the market can support what sits just below it.
On the 12-hour chart, XRP trades around $1.87 and is down about 4% over the past week. That weakness has come despite visible buying interest and repeated attempts to reclaim key levels. To understand why those attempts fail, the story has to start with a key reclaim.
XRP’s EMA Reclaim Is the First Step, but Only One Has Worked
On the 12-hour timeframe, the most important short-term signal for XRP is the 20-period exponential moving average. The 20-EMA tracks short-term trend direction. When price reclaims it and holds with volume, momentum usually shifts higher.
XRP has reclaimed the 20-EMA several times since December. Most of those attempts failed, but one did not.
On January 1 and January 2, XRP reclaimed the 20-EMA on strong buying volume. More importantly, the reclaim was followed by higher-volume green candles, not immediate selling. That confirmation mattered. Between January 2 and January 6, XRP rallied roughly 28%, marking the strongest move of the month.
That successful reclaim shows the EMA itself is not the issue. The issue is how the reclaim happens.
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Compare that to later attempts. On December 9 and again around December 20, XRP briefly moved above the 20-EMA, but volume faded immediately. Follow-through buying never appeared as selling pressure appeared, and the price slipped back below the average. The same pattern repeated on January 28. XRP reclaimed the 20-EMA on moderate volume, but the next sessions failed to build on it. Selling pressure appeared.
The takeaway is simple. EMA reclaims need a strong follow-up buyer volume. Without it, they are temporary signals, not trend shifts. But even when volume improves, XRP runs into another problem.
The Sell Wall Above the EMA Is Why Rallies Stall
Once the XRP price reclaims the 20-EMA near $1.94 (current positioning), the price would immediately move into a heavy supply zone.
On-chain cost basis data shows a major cluster between $1.96 and $1.98, containing roughly 1.86 billion XRP. This is not a psychological level. It is a concentration of coins last bought in that range. When price returns there, many holders sell to break even or reduce exposure.
This is why reclaiming the EMA alone is not enough. The EMA reclaim pushes the price straight into this supply wall. If buying pressure is not strong enough to absorb it, rallies would fail even after the reclaim.
Early January shows the difference. During the January 1–6 rally, exchange outflows surged, indicating coins were leaving exchanges rather than being sent there to sell.
Outflows climbed from roughly 8.9 million XRP to about 38.5 million XRP. That sustained demand helped the price move through the supply cluster. Even though the outflow was much lower than the wall’s size, the over 330% surge in outflow suggests the holders may not have sold at the wall.
Recent attempts lack that support and conviction. On January 28, exchange outflows briefly rose to about 18.1 million XRP, helping the XRP price push higher intraday. But by January 29, outflows fell back near 5.4 million XRP.
This explains why XRP keeps stalling just below $2. The market is not rejecting the number. It is struggling to show the conviction needed to absorb the supply behind it.
Whales Are Buying, but Demand Still Falls Short
Whale behavior adds nuance, but it does not change the conclusion.
Wallets holding 10 million to 100 million XRP increased their balances from roughly 11.03 billion to 11.19 billion XRP since January 21, almost 160 million. That shows accumulation. Larger wallets holding over 1 billion XRP have shown mixed behavior, with holdings going up by a marginal 30 million.
This tells us whales are positioning, not forcing price.
When compared to a 1.86 billion XRP sell wall, current whale accumulation and spot demand are not large enough to overwhelm supply. Buying exists, but it is uneven and short-lived. Without sustained exchange outflows, whale addition, and volume expansion, the wall remains intact.
The Levels That Decide Whether XRP Price Breaks or Fails Again
The roadmap is now clear.
$1.94–$1.95: First step. A clean reclaim puts XRP back above the 20-EMA.
$1.99: The real trigger. A strong 12-hour close above this level would break the supply cluster.
Above $1.99, follow-through becomes more likely, as the sell wall thins out, targeting $2.04 and even $2.19.
On the downside, a 12-hour close below $1.80 would invalidate the setup and signal renewed weakness.
XRP does not need to prove it can touch $2. It has done that already. It needs sustained buying strong enough to absorb 1.86 billion XRP sitting just below that level. Until that happens, every rebound will keep running into the same wall.
* The content presented above, whether from a third party or not, is considered as general advice only. This article should not be construed as containing investment advice, investment recommendations, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments.
