Anthropic Confidentially Files for IPO Ahead of OpenAI: How Large Is the First-Mover Advantage? What Are the Early Risks?

TradingKey - On June 1, local time, AI newcomer Anthropic unexpectedly announced that it has confidentially filed for an initial public offering (IPO) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), taking a critical step toward going public ahead of its long-time industry rival, OpenAI.

The tech company, renowned for its Claude series of large language models, did not disclose the specific offering size or pricing in its statement. It merely noted that the move "provides the company with the option to list once the SEC completes its review," while the final decision on whether and when to go public remains subject to market conditions and other comprehensive factors.

According to reports, if the regulatory review proceeds smoothly, Anthropic could debut on the U.S. stock market as early as this fall. The news sent shockwaves through the market, as most analysts and investors previously expected OpenAI to lead the charge into the public markets; some market bets had even anticipated OpenAI filing IPO documents in late May. Now, Anthropic's sudden "jump-start" has brought the capital showdown between these AI giants into a fever pitch ahead of schedule.

Notably, just one week before filing its IPO application, Anthropic closed a $65 billion Series H funding round, which propelled its post-money valuation to $965 billion. This not only surpassed OpenAI’s $852 billion valuation from March but also made it the world's second-highest valued private tech company, trailing only Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which is valued at $1.75 trillion.

Even more surprising is that Anthropic's valuation leaped from $380 billion to $965 billion in just four months, while its annualized revenue topped $47 billion, demonstrating staggering growth momentum.

For OpenAI, Anthropic's preemptive move is undoubtedly an unexpected challenge. Although OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has publicly stated that he is "not focused on the IPO timeline and will go public at the right time," market consensus suggests that Anthropic's first-mover advantage could capture the narrative high ground and investor attention.

Why is being the first to list so critical?

In the long-distance race of capital markets, first-mover advantage often signifies more than just brand exposure and pricing power; it can translate into unquantifiable strategic barriers, while the implicit costs of being a "follower" are frequently underestimated by the market.

Academic research indicates that Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) typically exhibit industry clustering, and companies entering the capital markets in the latter half of a cycle often underperform compared to those that listed earlier in the long run.

Amid current buoyant market sentiment, the total pool of investor capital is not infinite. As mega-cap tech firms like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI launch consecutive IPOs, the capital markets are bound to face a massive reallocation of funds.

Patrick Healy, founder of Issuer Network, used the phrase "there’s only so much oxygen in the room" to describe the current market situation: "SpaceX will consume a massive amount of capital; the second one to market will be in a better position than the third."

Currently, the valuation targets of the three tech giants are astronomical. Anthropic's valuation approached $1 trillion in its latest funding round, OpenAI's valuation reached $852 billion in March this year, and SpaceX is aiming for a $1.75 trillion valuation target.

Such immense financing demands will inevitably create a significant siphoning effect on market liquidity. Investors may sell off other holdings to first pile into mega-projects like SpaceX, then adjust their positions based on market reaction to allocate towards OpenAI and Anthropic later this year or next. In this process, the first companies to go public will undoubtedly seize more of the increasingly scarce capital resources.

Furthermore, the recent heat in the IPO market is undoubtedly a key driver for Anthropic's decision to move early. According to Dealogic, global IPO proceeds reached $87.5 billion as of May 26, the highest for the same period since 2021. AI chip company Cerebras surged 68% on its first day of trading last month, becoming a benchmark for tech IPOs in recent years, while digital design platform Figma’s 250% first-day gain last year set a new market record. These success stories have clearly bolstered Anthropic's confidence.

Kat Liu, vice president at IPO research firm IPOX, analyzed that Anthropic's decision to file for an IPO shortly after SpaceX is aimed at seizing the current favorable market window and capitalizing on strong investor interest in AI and growth stocks.

More subtly, compared to SpaceX’s $1.75 trillion valuation, Anthropic’s roughly $965 billion valuation target "appears far less aggressive than when viewed in isolation." This contrast effect will undoubtedly enhance its appeal in the eyes of investors.

What are the risks of rushing to go public?

Of course, the flip side of the "first-mover advantage" coin is the pressure of valuation validation and market uncertainty that pioneers must bear alone.

Throughout the history of technology stocks, the fates of first-movers have been volatile, ranging from cases like Facebook, which overcame setbacks to become a giant, to the lessons of Lyft and Twitter, which met their "Waterloo" due to poor timing—all of which adds more uncertainty to the current AI IPO race.

When an industry is in its early stages and lacks a mature track record and valuation framework, first-movers often have to bear the risk of lagging market perception.

When Facebook went public in 2012, it was at a critical juncture in the mobile internet transition, and the market was skeptical about its ability to pivot from a PC-based advertising model to mobile. This concern was directly reflected in its stock price; within the first three months of trading, Facebook's market capitalization shrank by more than half, causing investors to lose confidence in its prospects. It was only after the company demonstrated strong strategic resilience and proved the sustainability of its business model through explosive growth in mobile advertising that the stock began a multi-year upward trend.

By contrast, companies like Twitter, which had originally planned to go public during the same period, chose to delay their listings after witnessing Facebook's experience, missing the optimal market window. This case illustrates that first-movers must not only withstand short-term stock price volatility but also assume the risk of "pathfinding" for the entire industry. If the market is dissatisfied with a pioneer's performance, it can trigger a chain reaction, undermining investor confidence in the sector and putting pressure on the valuations of subsequent IPOs.

The Trillion-Dollar Bet: Future Trajectory of the AI Industry

While being the first to market carries significant risks, the potential rewards are enough to keep AI giants flocking to go public. For AI companies in a rapid growth phase, the substantial capital raised through an IPO serves as critical support for R&D, the war for talent, and market expansion.

More importantly, the path to equity monetization provided by an IPO can effectively bolster morale and retain core talent. In today’s hyper-competitive AI landscape, the battle for top talent has become a central pillar of corporate growth, and freely tradable shares post-IPO are undoubtedly a critical incentive for attracting and retaining human capital.

This IPO race led by Anthropic and OpenAI is essentially a trillion-dollar wager on the future landscape of the AI industry. Whichever firm lists first, along with the subsequent market reaction, will profoundly impact the growth trajectories of both companies and potentially shape the next phase of the AI boom. If the first mover gains market validation, it will underscore investor confidence in the transformative power of AI, further accelerating the flow of capital into the sector.