Colombia: Oil‑supported recovery with tighter BanRep – Societe Generale

According to Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish, higher Oil prices improve Colombia’s outlook, with growth expected to move back toward potential in 2026–27. Inflation expectations are stabilizing, though Oil passthrough could generate temporary upside. The central bank of Colombia BanRep (Banco de la República) is projected to tighten further, with rates likely peaking near 12%, while a close election shapes fiscal and market expectations and adds risk to inflation and policy rates.

Oil‑driven growth and higher rate peak

"Higher oil prices lift the outlook, with growth moving back toward potential in 2026–27."

"[Inflation] Expectations stabilizing, though oil passthrough could create temporary upside."

"BanRep to tighten further, with rates likely peaking near 12%."

"Close election reshapes expectations, with outcomes influencing fiscal and market views."

"Oil passthrough and election uncertainty could push inflation and policy rates higher."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)