US Dollar Index hovers around 99.00 after paring recent gains
- US Dollar Index may regain ground as safe-haven demand rose following the failure of the US–Iran peace talks.
- Vice President JD Vance confirmed US–Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a deal after 21 hours of negotiations.
- Stronger March US CPI reinforced the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance, signaling rates may stay elevated for longer.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is remaining in the positive territory after paring daily gains and trading around 99.00 during the Asian hours on Monday.
However, the Greenback gained ground on increased safe-haven demand following the failure of the United States (US)-Iran peace talks. US Vice President JD Vance confirmed the US–Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a deal following 21 hours of negotiations.
US President Donald Trump said Washington would begin blockading all ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, while US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed operations targeting maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports from 10 AM ET (14:00 GMT) Monday.
Moreover, the US Dollar receives support as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) March data reinforced the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) higher-for-longer stance. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that annual CPI rose to 3.3% in March from 2.4% in February, matching expectations. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.9% after 0.3% previously. Meanwhile, core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Reuters that if inflation remains elevated, the Fed will hold rates steady until price stability is achieved. However, Daly added that a rate cut is possible if the Iran conflict eases quickly and oil prices decline.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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