USD: Softer payrolls expected – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank economists project a slowdown in February Nonfarm Payrolls to 30k from January’s 130k, with the Unemployment Rate steady at 4.3%. The bank notes two‑sided risks due to BLS population control changes, while recent jobless claims and Fed commentary suggest a labour market that is stabilizing rather than weakening sharply.

Payroll growth seen easing from January

"In terms of what to expect, our US economists think that payrolls will be up +30k, coming down from the 13-month high of +130k in January."

"Then for unemployment, they see that remaining at 4.3%, but they note that carries elevated risks in both directions given that the BLS will implement their annual population controls."

"In addition, the latest weekly initial jobless claims were slightly beneath expectations, at 213k in the week ending Feb 28 (vs. 215k expected), so that added to the optimism ahead of today's jobs report."

"And we saw more positive comments on the labour market from Fed Vice Chair Bowman, who said it showed more “signs of stabilizing”."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)