USD gains stall for the time being – Scotiabank

The US Dollar (USD) is trading narrowly mixed against its major currency peers this morning. Risk sentiment retains a soft undertone, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

DXY gains stall near resistance in the low 100 area

"European stocks bounced in early trade but have given back gains as yesterday’s tech sell-off in the US weighs on sentiment. US equity futures are drifting into the red and bonds retain a modest bid. Gold is slightly firmer. Net gains or losses for the major currencies are minor for the most part, suggesting something of a holding pattern developing in FX as traders await equity market or fundamental or developments. With the US government shutdown entering its 35th—and record-equaling—day, this morning’s private sector data may have some influence."

"Final October Services and Composite PMIs plus the preliminary October Services ISM (expected to reflect a small gain in momentum) will give some sense of how the economy is shaping up into the end of the year. Note that the Supreme Court will consider challenges to tariffs implemented under the president’s emergency powers today. At the moment, a decision is not expected until the New Year but should the court rule against the measures, President Trump has other means to levy tariffs, albeit through a more convoluted process."

"DXY gains are showing some signs of stalling this morning just above the 100 level, fractionally below the 200-day MA (100.35), bang on the August 1 high (the day of the July jobs report release) and effectively important technical resistance. A push through the low 100 level would suggest that the general USD rebound is likely to extend, potentially quite significantly over the next few weeks. A stall and reversal from the low 100 area, meanwhile, implies a continuation of the broad consolidation range for the DXY in place since the middle of the year. This evening, Japan releases wage data and Australia publishes trade data."