Ripple Price Forecast: XRP pares losses amid stable retail interest, mild capital inflows
- XRP recovers from an intraday low of $1.33, but bearish pressure persists in the long term.
- XRP investment products recorded $3.5 million in capital inflows last week, while both Bitcoin and Ethereum's registered outflows.
- The XRP futures Open Interest holds at $2.4 billion as retail interest recovers slightly from last week’s lows.
Ripple (XRP) is rising above $1.40 at the time of writing on Monday amid fresh tariff-triggered headwinds in the broader cryptocurrency market. The sell-off to $1.33, the token’s intraday low, can be attributed to macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and risk-averse sentiment among other factors.
XRP inflows slow as Bitcoin, Ethereum see capital exit
Inflows into XRP-related investment products declined to $3.5 million last week, according to the CoinShares report. In hindsight, this marks a 90% drop from the previous week’s $33 million in inflows. The total assets under management average $2.6 billion, with YTD inflows at $151 million.
Meanwhile, demand for Bitcoin-linked financial products remained on the back foot, with cumulative outflows reaching $215 million last week. Despite the sell-off that has dragged the Crypto King below $65,000, the total assets under management stand at $104 billion. However, YTD outflows average $1.3 billion, according to CoinShares.
“Bitcoin remains the key proponent of this negative sentiment, seeing US$215m in outflows, while short-bitcoin investment products saw renewed interest with US$5.5m inflows, the largest of any asset,” CoinShares reports.
Ethereum, like Bitcoin, experienced an extended capital exit last week, with outflows totalling $36.5 million. The leading asset YTD outflows stand at $494 million, while cumulative assets under management exceed $15 million.
As for retail interest, XRP derivatives are showing stability, as futures Open Interest (OI) rises slightly to $2.4 billion on Monday from $2.33 billion the previous day. CoinGlass data affirms OI’s stability, which has remained above $2.32 billion since its drop to $2.56 billion on February 16.
A steady increase in OI suggests that investors are leaning into risk as confidence in the token improves, increasing the odds of a potential recovery in the coming sessions.
Technical outlook: Assessing XRP’s recovery potential
XRP hovers around $1.40, supported by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, which holds above its signal line on the daily chart. However, as green histogram bars contract, the remittance token’s upside may limit further price increases.
At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39 remains well below neutral on the daily chart, aligning with the overall weak technical structure.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.66, the 100-day EMA at $1.87 and the 200-day EMA at $2.09 are sloping lower, indicating that XRP could face an extended downside movement, aiming for the intraday low at $1.33, the October 10 support at $1.25.
If sentiment improves and investors increase exposure, a modest increase would bring XRP to the supply zone at $1.54, aligning with the February 6 low at $1.12.
Cryptocurrency metrics FAQs
The developer or creator of each cryptocurrency decides on the total number of tokens that can be minted or issued. Only a certain number of these assets can be minted by mining, staking or other mechanisms. This is defined by the algorithm of the underlying blockchain technology. On the other hand, circulating supply can also be decreased via actions such as burning tokens, or mistakenly sending assets to addresses of other incompatible blockchains.
Market capitalization is the result of multiplying the circulating supply of a certain asset by the asset’s current market value.
Trading volume refers to the total number of tokens for a specific asset that has been transacted or exchanged between buyers and sellers within set trading hours, for example, 24 hours. It is used to gauge market sentiment, this metric combines all volumes on centralized exchanges and decentralized exchanges. Increasing trading volume often denotes the demand for a certain asset as more people are buying and selling the cryptocurrency.
Funding rates are a concept designed to encourage traders to take positions and ensure perpetual contract prices match spot markets. It defines a mechanism by exchanges to ensure that future prices and index prices periodic payments regularly converge. When the funding rate is positive, the price of the perpetual contract is higher than the mark price. This means traders who are bullish and have opened long positions pay traders who are in short positions. On the other hand, a negative funding rate means perpetual prices are below the mark price, and hence traders with short positions pay traders who have opened long positions.
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