WTI Price Forecast: Sits near three-week high, below $85.00 as bulls eye 100-SMA breakout
- WTI sticks to a positive bias for the fourth straight day and climbs to a nearly three-week high.
- The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz continues to act as a tailwind for the commodity.
- A move beyond the 100-day SMA is needed to back the case for a further appreciating move.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – touches a nearly three-week high during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it struggles to build on the momentum beyond the $85.00 mark. The commodity, however, sticks to a positive bias for the fourth straight day and seems poised to appreciate further amid geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the US-Iran standoff.
President Donald Trump posted a map on Truth Social depicting the strategic Strait of Hormuz as the new US territory and said that the naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in full force. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, on the other hand, said the critical waterway would remain closed until the US fulfills conditions agreed under a June memorandum of understanding. This keeps the war-risk premium in play and validates the near-term positive outlook for crude oil prices.
From a technical perspective, WTI maintains a near-term bullish bias above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August slide. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.90 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at 0.47 both suggest mildly constructive momentum. The broader structure still points to limited upside while price remains capped below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal resistance at $86.09 and the 50.0% retracement at $87.06.
This is followed by the 61.8% Fibo. level at $91.73, which would mark a stronger bullish trigger if reclaimed. On the downside, initial support aligns with the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $82.38, ahead of deeper structural floors at $76.60 and $67.25, where buyers would be expected to show more robust interest on a larger pullback.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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