Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD remains pressured below $4,700 amid firm USD

• Gold remains capped below $4,700, pressured by a stronger US Dollar and reduced Fed rate cut expectations.
• Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz support the Greenback and weigh on the non-yielding metal.
• XAU/USD keeps a bearish bias below key moving averages, with downside risks.

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure on Thursday but holds near $4,700 at the time of writing, showing some resilience despite an unfavorable backdrop.

The rise of the US Dollar (USD), supported by geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, weighs on the yellow metal. At the same time, persistent inflation concerns are reducing expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, further strengthening the Greenback and pressuring the non-yielding asset.

Although geopolitical risks remain elevated, the overall backdrop stays bearish for Gold, and markets are awaiting a clear break below $4,700 to confirm a deeper decline.

Technical Analysis: Persistent downward pressure

In the four-hour chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,697.86, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as price holds beneath the 100-, 200- and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs) clustered between roughly $4,746 and $4,782. The break lower from the prior uptrend leaves Gold leaning on former trend-line support around $4,684, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 39 suggests weak downside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

On the topside, initial resistance is now seen at the 100-period SMA at $4,746, followed by the 200-period SMA at $4,762 and the 50-period SMA near $4,782, which together form a dense supply band that would need to be reclaimed to ease bearish pressure. On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the rising trend line around $4,684; a clear move below this area would expose the next notable horizontal floor near $4,554.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)