WTI plunges back below $100 as Trump postpones energy infrastructure strikes on Iran
- Crude collapses in one of the largest intraday swings on record as de-escalation hopes meet Strait of Hormuz uncertainty.
- Trump postponed military strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days after reporting "productive" conversations with Tehran, though Iran denied any talks were taking place.
- The IEA's record 400-million-barrel coordinated reserve release continues to flow, but analysts warn the measures cannot fully offset the ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure.
WTI Crude Oil fell roughly 9% on Monday, falling back below $100/barrel and testing $90.00 after tracing one of the widest intraday ranges in modern oil market history. Prices spiked above $101.00 in early trading as Trump's 48-hour ultimatum to Iran expired, before reversing violently to a session low around $84.00 and spending the rest of the day clawing back toward $90.00. The roughly $17 high-to-low range dwarfs recent sessions, and the recovery from the lows has stalled in a choppy intraday band.
President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the US and Iran had held "very good and productive conversations" about a "complete and total resolution" of hostilities, and instructed the Pentagon to postpone all military strikes on Iranian power plants for five days. The announcement reversed his 48-hour ultimatum issued Saturday, in which he threatened to "obliterate" Iran's power grid if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened.
Tehran denied any talks were underway, and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reiterated that it would target energy and desalination infrastructure across the region in the event of an attack on Iranian power plants. The contradiction between Trump's de-escalation tone and Iran's denial kept markets on edge through the afternoon.
On the supply side, the International Energy Agency's (IEA) record 400-million-barrel coordinated reserve release, announced on March 11, is beginning to flow, with the US contributing 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over an estimated 120-day delivery window. Goldman Sachs raised its WTI forecast to $98 for March and $105 for April, noting that Strait of Hormuz flows remain at roughly 5% of normal volume. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said Monday it is too early to assess the inflation impact of the energy price shock and that he still believes rate cuts are warranted to support the labour market.
WTI 5-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the 5-minute chart, WTI US OIL trades at $89.29. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as price holds well below the descending 200-period exponential moving average near $93.40, keeping the intraday trend under pressure despite intermittent bounces. The latest pullback from the $90.50 area coincides with a Stochastic RSI retreat from overbought conditions above 90 toward 30, indicating fading upside momentum and reinforcing the risk of further downside while below the long-term intraday average.
Initial support emerges at $88.75, the most recent reaction low, with a break exposing $86.50 ahead of the deeper $85.70 area. On the topside, immediate resistance sits at $90.00, followed by $90.50, where earlier rallies stalled, with a stronger barrier at $91.00 that would need to give way to challenge the 200-period EMA cluster higher up. As long as price trades beneath $90.50, rallies are likely to meet supply, while a sustained move above this band would ease the current bearish bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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