EUR/USD has failed to hold below the 1.0800 level. Nonetheless, economists at Rabobank expect the shared currency to remain under downside pressure.
While we expect that the ECB policy will remain on hold until there are further signs of moderation in wage pressures, the relative softness of the Eurozone economy is still likely to support market speculation regarding a spring rate cut. This suggests scope for near-term softness in the EUR.
It is our house view that the Fed will hold rates steady until June. Consequently, we expect the market to continue pricing out expectations regarding an earlier move which should support the USD.
We continue to see risk of EUR/USD dipping to 1.0500 on a three-month view.