NZD/USD Price Analysis: New Zealand Dollar weakens ahead of Q1GDP

• NZD/USD falls to near 0.6130 as the New Zealand Dollar exhibits weakness ahead of the Q1 GDP data.
• The USD Index holds its immediate support of 105.00 in a holiday market mood.
• NZD/USD declines toward the horizontal support of the Broadening Triangle pattern.

The NZD/USD pair slumps to near 0.6130 in Wednesday’s American session. The Kiwi asset drops as the New Zaland Dollar comes under pressure ahead of the New Zealand (NZ) Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be published on Thursday. The NZ economy is estimated to have remained stagnant.

Weak economic performance would boost expectations of early rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The RBNZ has been keeping its Official Cash Rate (OCR) higher at 5.5% for more than a year due to stubborn inflationary pressures.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) edges down in a thin volume trading session due to a holiday in United States (US) markets on account of Juneteenth. The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds its crucial support of 105.00. However, the near-term outlook has become uncertain as market participants expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates twice this year.

This week, the US Dollar will be guided by preliminary S&P Global PMIs for June, which will be published on Thursday. The agency is expected to show a decline in the Composite PMI due to weakness in manufacturing as well as the service sector.

NZD/USD trades in a Broadening Triangle chart pattern on a four-hour timeframe in which the downside remains cushioned with the horizontal support, which is plotted from May 16 low around 0.6100. While the upside in the above-mentioned chart formation remains limited to the upward-sloping border, which in this case is marked from May 16 high around 0.6140.

The 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.6101 continues to provide support to the New Zealand Dollar bulls.

The 14-period Relative Strength index (RSI) hovers near 40.00. A break below the same will trigger a bearish momentum.

Fresh downside would appear if the asset delivers a decisive break below the round-level support of 0.6100. This would drag the asset towards April 4 high around 0.6050 and psychological support of 0.6000.

On the contrary, a reversal move above June 12 high of 0.6222, which will expose the asset January 15 high near 0.6250, followed by January 12 high near 0.6280.

NZD/USD four-hour chart