USD/CHF stays above 0.7800 as US Dollar steadies on market caution
- USD/CHF stays firm as the US Dollar holds steady amid caution following US strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island.
- Middle East tensions eased after Israel and Iran separately signaled a temporary pause in hostilities.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to rise by 62K in April, following a 178K increase in March.
USD/CHF holds gains for the second successive day, trading around 0.7810 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair remains stronger as the US Dollar (USD) holds firm following modest gains recorded in the previous session.
Traders remain cautious after the US military carried out strikes on the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command confirmed that Iranian forces launched missiles, drones, and small-boat attacks against USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta, and USS Mason while the guided-missile destroyers were transiting the Strait of Hormuz. According to the official statement, CENTCOM described the Iranian action as unprovoked and said US forces responded under their right to self-defense.
However, renewed tensions in the Middle East eased after separate comments from Israel and Iran indicated that hostilities had temporarily subsided. US President Donald Trump also said that the ceasefire between the US and Iran remains in place. A senior US official told Fox News that the recent strikes do not represent a restart of the war and should not be viewed as the end of the current ceasefire arrangement.
The Trump administration is awaiting Iran’s reply to a proposal aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the nearly 10-week conflict. However, tensions remain elevated across the Persian Gulf and Lebanon. Reports suggest that Tehran is expected to send its response through Pakistan within the next two days.
Later in the day, market participants will monitor Switzerland’s SECO Consumer Climate (3m) data for Q2. Investors will also turn their attention to the US April employment report, which is expected to show that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 62K jobs in April, down from 178K in March, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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