AUD/USD: Consolidation risk after RBA pause – Societe Generale

Societe Generale strategists note AUD/USD has pulled back after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a third 25bp hike to 4.35% while signalling a pause. The pair is drifting below 0.7150 despite earlier reclaiming its 50‑DMA, with risk sentiment and the RBA’s data‑dependent stance expected to guide direction around key 0.7060 and 0.7225 levels.

Key supports and RBA-driven outlook

"Three hikes and done, receive the front end in Australia? Not so fast. The third rate increase today by the RBA puts the CRT at 4.35% but this is below the new higher projection of 4.7% for Dec-26 (raised from 4.2% in February). In other words, the central bank is holding powder in reserve to tighten at least once more. The rate then stays at 4.7% through 2027 and 1H-28. Core inflation peaks at 3.8% in 2Q and then drifts down to 3.1% by the end of this year, to 2.6% in 2027 and 2.5% in 1H-28. Headline CPI falls back from 4.0% in Dec-26 to 2.4% by mid-2027. "

"Governor Bullock sounded more neutral this time in her comments, prompting the receiving interest in the front end and bull steepening in 2s/10s. The further crystallisation of upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations will determine if rates are hoisted again to 4.6%, probably in August or September. A pause in June looks a done deal. The statement highlighted the risk of second-round effects across goods and services. Governor Bullock reiterated that the Board has no predetermined path and will remain data-dependent, ruling nothing in or out."

"AUD/USD reclaimed its 50‑DMA in April and subsequently staged a strong rebound. However, the pair has struggled to establish itself beyond the March peak, carving out an interim high near 0.7225; this points to a lack of steady upward momentum."

"A period of consolidation cannot be ruled out. Defence of the 50‑DMA around 0.7060 is crucial for continuation of the up move. A break above 0.7225 may lead to a larger uptrend."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)