USD/INR tumbles on US-Iran two-week ceasefire, RBI leaves Repo Rate unchanged at 5.25%
- The Indian Rupee nears a three-week high against the US Dollar on the US-Iran temporary ceasefire.
- Iran delivers a 10-point proposal plan to the US, which includes recognition of Tehran’s authority at Hormuz.
- The RBI leaves its Repo Rate steady at 5.25%, as expected.
The Indian Rupee (INR) jumps to a fresh an almost three-week high against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening trade on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair slides to near 92.30 as the US Dollar weakens and global oil prices nosedive, following a temporary ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down 0.55% to near 99.00. WTI Oil price plummets almost 11% to near $90.00.
Trump suspends planned attacks on Iran for two weeks
Earlier in the day, US President Donald Trump announced, through a post on Truth.Social, that he has suspended planned attacks on Iranian power plants and bridges for two weeks, as it has agreed to a “complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz”, a critical gateway to almost 20% of global oil supply. Trump added, “We received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
Meanwhile, Iran has also acknowledged the Hormuz reopening, and the delivery of the 10-point proposal, which includes controlled transit through the Hormuz coordinated with Iranian armed forces, ending war against Iran and allied groups, the withdrawal of US combat forces from all regional bases, lifting all primary and secondary sanctions, payment of full compensation to Iran and the release of all frozen Iranian assets.
The Hormuz reopening has battered the oil price badly, a scenario that is favorable for currencies from economies like India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs.
However, the continuation of the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) selling in the Indian stock market is expected to cap the upside in the Indian Rupee. So far in April, FIIs have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 35,121.56 crore.
RBI maintains status quo
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept key interest rates unchanged in the monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, keeping the Repo Rate steady at 5.25%. The Indian central bank was expected to maintain status quo as the war in the Middle East has increased inflation globally.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra has stated in the monetary policy statement that higher oil prices due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to impact growth this year. “Elevated crude oil prices could increase imported inflation and widen the current account deficit,” Malhotra said.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR stays below 20-day EMA
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USD/INR declines to near 92.30 in the opening session on Wednesday. The pair trades below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), shifting the near-term bias to mildly bearish.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 47, moving below the 50 midline and confirming that sellers have gained control after the overbought readings seen above 70 in late March.
Immediate support emerges at 92.00 and then 91.50, where the previous consolidation zone sits. On the topside, initial resistance is now located at 93.00, with stronger resistance at 93.70 ahead of the recent 95.12 peak. As long as price holds below this resistance band while RSI remains under 50, rallies are expected to be capped and vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
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